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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) The Mystery of Standard Deviations (Read 65439 times)
JDSteele
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #30 - Jul 23rd, 2004 at 2:24pm
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Two short & simple observations, JMO:

Dale & Brent, I'm with you on the 22 ammo. I choose the most accurate brand for each rifle and then just buy as many bricks of the same lot as I can afford. Other methods have proven frustrating & time-wasting for me.

Re velocity SDs as a measure or predictor of accuracy, it's only true at long range IMO. I posit that any load with wide ES & SD will be inaccurate at long range while at short range the ES & SD seem to have very little relationship to actual group size in many cases. IOW some of the most accurate loads at 100 yds may have wide velocity ES and high SD, but these same loads that were quite accurate at short range will show vertical dispersion at 800 yds. JMO
  
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joeb33050
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #31 - Jul 24th, 2004 at 7:00am
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Brent et al;
I love the range. The calculated standard deviation from a sample of data is an estimate of the population SD. The range, corrected for bias, is also an estimator of SD.
One may use either estimate of SD in any calculation.
On your targets; 3 and 5 are round looking groups, 2,6 and 8 are not. I don't think that we can say that the process is in or out of control based on 5 shots = 1 group. Statements about control maybe need 5 groups or so for validity. What I will tell you is that if those targets were shot with the same equipment/load in about the same conditions, then the shooting process is out of control and something other than statistics needs to be done.
I don't dislike statistical analysis, don't  think I know it all (Anybody who thinks they do should look at "Bias in Mental Testing" by Herrnstein?).
Have at it, enjoy yourself, I was once a true believer myself, and I know how it feels to be able to change the world. 
Did you look at the Ed Wosika stuff?
joe b.
  
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Brent
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #32 - Jul 24th, 2004 at 6:19pm
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Joe, range is NEVER an estimate of SD.  SD is the root of the sum of the differences between the mean and each observation.  The range is what?  Max difference between to observations.  Nothing more.  SD is, what?, technically the root of the second moment of the stocastic process?  Not that it matters.  The one precise point is that SD being the root of the variance is one of two parameters that describe most stochastic distributions and most especially the Normal distribution.  Range describes nothing other than the max-min.   

Identifying or defining a distribution is critical.  Why?  So you can compare them of course.  How can you say two things are differen if you don't know what they are?  And, indeed, you need to know SD to know what they are.  The mean being the other critical parameter (except in the case of exponential distributions and a few others which are described by only one parameter).    

For what it's worth, if you number those groups
1 2 3 
4 5 6
7 8 9 

All the odd groups were "shot" by a random cannon having 33% more vertical dispersion than horizontal dispersion.  All the even numbered groups were shot by a random cannon having identical horizontal and vertical distributions of dispersion.  There is no wind, no velocity variation, no nothing except raw stochasticity.   

My point is, you cannot know what is "in control" or not in control by your definition (BTW, the half dozen advanced stats texts in my office, the phrase "in control" is found in none of them), without statistical testing.  And, for what it is worth, we still have not discussed stastical testing, which is the entire point.  How do you use a range to conduct a statistical analysis?  I have found such a way.  But it's via calculating SDs again.  CAn't get away from that.  I know of exactly zero statistical measures that are used in testing and analysis that directly use range in their formulation.   

Brent
  
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joeb33050
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Quality and Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #33 - Jul 24th, 2004 at 6:59pm
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Well, Brent, I'd refer you to 
(You need to Login or Register to view media files and links)
or
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or search on "range standard deviation"
or 
control chart
or statistical process control
The range has been used as an estimator of SD since at least 1931, when Shewhart sort of invented SPC.
When I entered graduate school (Economics, MA, 1972, Northeastern University, Boston, MA) several math and stat teachers balked, as you did-saying it ain't so. About 10 minutes with "Statistical Quality Control" by Grant, now Grant & Leavenworth last I looked, boogered their minds. 
Quality and Statistical Process Control
Here's a little info:
Prof. Sid Sytsma – Ferris State University
Statistical Process Control 

"Shewhart's discovery statistical process control or SPC, is a methodology for charting the process and quickly determining when a process is "out of control" (e.g., a special cause variation is present because something unusual is occurring in the process)."
A few minutes on the computer will explain all about using the RANGE as an estimator of SD, and what "in control" and "out of control" mean. 
Perhaps, Brent, you don't know quite everything that you think you know?
Look it up, Brent, do the work
joe b.

  
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joeb33050
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #34 - Jul 24th, 2004 at 7:16pm
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Or:
Robust Estimation of the Process Standard Deviation for Control Charts 
Lawrence G. Tatum 

Control charts are tools used to detect aberrant behavior in manufacturing processes. The X chart plots subsample averages as a function of time, and the R chart plots subsample ranges. Both of these charts rely on an estimate of the standard deviation of the process when it is operating correctly. The estimate has traditionally been based on the average
range
of 20–40 subgroups, but this will produce an estimate that is biased high when outliers are present. One standard solution is to construct a range chart for the original subgroups and estimate the standard deviation only from those subgroups within the control limits, repeating the procedure as necessary. Proposals have also recently been made to use a trimmed mean of the subsample ranges with a fixed percentage of trimming, as well as the trimmed mean of the subsample interquartile ranges. This article presents a new approach to robust estimation of the process standard deviation. The procedure first centers each subsample on its own median and then applies a modified biweight A estimator to the pooled residuals. This method combines the strengths of the previous methods—the relatively high efficiency of the range-based methods when no disturbance is present, together with the strong resistance to disturbances of the trimmed interquartile range method. 


It's just everywhere.
joe b.
  
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Dale53
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #35 - Jul 24th, 2004 at 8:07pm
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JoeB;

>>>Perhaps, Brent, you don't know quite everything that you think you know? 
Look it up, Brent, do the work 
joe b. <<<

Disagree all you want. You do NOT have to insult everyone who disagrees with you. You nearly ruined the last forum before you were removed. How about "chilling down" a bit?

You and others have a lot to contribute. We need this forum to remain civil for ALL of our benefits.

R. Dale McGee
« Last Edit: Jul 24th, 2004 at 8:13pm by Dale53 »  
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PETE
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #36 - Jul 24th, 2004 at 9:41pm
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Dale,

  I agree with you. I'd hate to see this interesting discussion go by the wayside because of a few hot words in "The heat of battle". I'll admit that most of this is over my head and I'm struggling to get this all straight. Would be a shame if it had to end just when it's starting to penetrate.

  Disagreement is a fact of life, and in a lot of cases is a way to learn of our mistakes, or a verification of what we believe, thru the give and take of discussion.

PETE
  
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joeb33050
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #37 - Jul 25th, 2004 at 6:54am
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Perhaps my manner is offensive. When I read that "The range is NEVER...", that is kind of offensive. I used and taught SPC/SQC for 40 years, and telling me that it ain't just gets me riled up.
As I said when I entered the fray, my interest is in the variability of group size.
For instance, Pete says that his rifle shoots into 9/16" for 5 shots at 100 yards on a quiet day. 
I don't know what he means by that. 
Is this the best group, or 1 in 5, or an average, or what?
In 2002 at the CBA Nationals, for an average of 4 five shot 100 yard groups, one of 41 shooters shot less than 9/16" = .5625", and only 4 shot under .6"
In 2003 4 of 49 shooters averaged under .6".
I record group sizes for every group shot. I find that my groups vary widely from group to group on the same day, and from day to day with identical loads, and they seem to get smaller the more I shoot on any given day.
In the 1997 Handloaders Digest, "Let's put some numbers on accuracy" by Paul Schiffelbein, PhD  says that 185 five shot groups are required to get a variability estimate that is good to within +/- 5%.
Maybe this is true, I hope not. My shift from IMR4227 to AA#9 in my Martini 30/30 bench gun was driven by far fewer groups, although the question was slightly different.
My query is kind of f-testy, variation within the data vs. variation between the data. If my gun shoots from .25" to 1.25"  over a long run, is that to be expected or is something wrong?
I hope that this hasn't been overly offensive.
When is the next ASSRA Journal coming?
joe b.
  
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Dale53
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #38 - Jul 25th, 2004 at 8:48am
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JoeB;
NOW, we are talking language that I can understand (I'm not a mathematician - just high school algebra, geometry, and a bit of calculus, most of which I have forgotten due to lack of use Embarrassed). However, the question of how many groups to base conclusions on is something that we all need to know.

It would be MUCH easier to make decisions on loads, bullet etc, if we were able to shoot in a tunnel. That's why Charlie Dell and friends built a cloth tunnel as per Mann. However, since I have no reasonable access to a tunnel, short of driving from SW Ohio to Virginia, then I must make my conclusions based on a limited number of "tests" at our local range when conditions are good.

Personally, I am pretty much satisfied when five consecutive five shot groups are averaged and fall within my expectations. Whether that is statistically correct, I haven't a clue. I rather agree with you that I certainly hope that it doesn't take 185 groups to be sure because it "ain't gonna happen". Undecided

Regarding your question about the Journal, DWS has answered that in the topic just under this one (I too, am eagerly awaiting the next issue). The transition from Editor to Editor has been difficult but it looks like our wait may be over soon. I am optimistic that after the Journal is up and running, it will be back on keel and received in a timely manner.

Dale53
  
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PETE
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #39 - Jul 25th, 2004 at 10:18am
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joe b.,

"For instance, Pete says that his rifle shoots into 9/16" for 5 shots at 100 yards on a quiet day.  
I don't know what he means by that."

 Ok... I can see I need to be a little more specific for you. So here are the last ten group sizes.

3/4" - 5/8" - 9/16" - 9/16" - 9/16" - 7/8" - 1/2" - 11/16" - 3/8" - 9/16".

 Out of these ten I would say only two are "round". The rest have at least one shot that at least increases the group by half.

 Of course, in my opinion these mean nothing without the conditions they were shot under. No more than one of these groups was shot on any given day, as I was using this load as a control for other testing. The smaller groups all were shot under "ideal" conditions. 7 AM in the morning, dead calm, target and ground in shade with no sign of mirage. The larger groups were shot on days at about the same time but some wind was present, varying from 7 to 3 o'clock depending on the day. The same condition was tried for but I can't say I hit it exactly every time.

 Since I shoot every day I don't record every shot, but do keep the targets till I have decided that a particular load combo is the best or not worth pursuing. But I do agree with you that groups will vary within the same day, and day to day. When you reach a certain level with you gun/load you need some way of confirming that it is the best load. This is where I think some math program would be of benefit.

 Both GWarden and myself are both having a hard time figuring out whether..... in my case a 1-25 or 1-30 alloy is best, and GWarden has the same problem with 1-20, & 1-25. What we need is something SIMPLE that can tell us over a fairly decent interval of shooting which would be the best. Both of us, I think have fired enuf of each alloy that we should be able to tell, but one day one will be better, and the next the other. Seems like we can go on forever like this and not be able to decide.

PETE

P.S.  Since Brent is a personal friend of mine I won't get into who's manner is most offensive. I'll only say that it's not how you perceive yourself, it's how others perceive you that counts. Both of you should state your case and leave the personalities out!

  
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JDSteele
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #40 - Jul 25th, 2004 at 11:17am
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Like Dale, I tend to be a little more empirical in my approach to any sort of testing and prediction of results. A 95% confidence level is the standard that's pretty much required if you're seeking peer acceptance and government or other official approval, but it's CERTAINLY not necessary for our purposes. In my prior occupation (nuclear) folks' lives were at stake so a 95% confidence level was mandatory and all the testing was done to very rigid ASTM & NRC guidelines with detailed record-keeping and complete accountability. SD, ES, Coefficient of Variation etc etc had to meet rigid parameters before acceptance & approval were granted, no exceptions.

But we don't need (or want) that kind of detailed testing for most of our questions. I agree that 5 5-shot groups are usually enough to give a pretty good indication, 10 10-shot groups would be better but that's about the limit of practicality for most folks and most situations IMO.

I've so far fired about 500 shots in my set trigger testing and will fire AT LEAST that many more, but that large number is primarily for the benefit of any Doubting Thomas out there. I was essentially convinced of the trend after the first 200 shots but will continue anyway in order to quantify the results as much as possible. The direction & trend of the results is no longer in doubt.

The question of whether anything is 'in control' or 'out of control' is unclear in my mind due to the murkiness of the explanation/definition. A non-round group does not IMO indicate anything except possible stringing or lack of consistency. Lack of consistency is not necessarily being 'out of control' but I suppose it can meet someone's definition.

One example: pick an accurate load, most any accurate load that gives round groups. Now shoot a group with a 5% reduced charge of the same powder and see if you don't get some sort of stringing to some degree, I'll bet you do. Is this non-round group now somehow 'out of control'?

Only in the minds of a very few special people. In almost all cases of my experience, stringing is a repeatable & relatively quantifiable phenomenon with some loads & velocities. That's certainly not 'out of control' in my mind, when the phenomenon can be predicted and quantified.

I COULD begin talking about barrel whip cycles and the effect of velocity upon the resulting group distribution, but that's for another discussion. Suffice it to say that a non-round group does NOT prove that anything is 'out of control', period. For further elucidation I refer you to Precision Shooting & The Accurate Rifle magazines and the book Rifle Accuracy Facts by Harold Vaughn.

BTW when we start quoting 'experts', please remember the definition of Ex-Spurt. These guys put their pants on one leg at a time just like everyone else, and they disagree with each other VERY frequently.
Caveat Emptor, Joe
  
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Brent
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #41 - Jul 26th, 2004 at 11:34am
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Ah, another great weekend in the books only to return to this sort of junk.   

Joe, 
If you don't like it, don't go there.  It is as simple as that.  If you want to hang on to range rather than SDs as an estimate of SDs - great.  More power to ya.  But it won't fly anywhere in any science I'm familiar with.  It surely won't get you published in my field.  If you wish to bandy about references and qualification on traditional and universally accepted statistical techniques, I have on my shelf right now,...

Design and Analysis of Experiments by John Gill.  I spent an entire year in Gill's courses (3 volumes).   

Then there is another perennial favorite, Sokal and Rolf's Biometery - about 850 pages of quite basic traditional statistics, 

And, let's see, Conover's Practical Nonparameterics -another semester spent on dissecting that.  Nonparameterics could be a quick good fix to the lack of statistical rigor in shooting.  But then you would see that immediately.   

There were several course in multivariate statistics that I spent my time (and money) in.  No texts handy, but multivariate stats would be an interesting way to go for a lot of load development, but no way that I know to make it easy for the average shooter.  Oh wait, yes, Multivariate Statstical Methods by Manly.  And a couple devoted to the arcane field of community ecology that would have little utility here.   

Then, lest we dwell on just the applied stats, I spent a year working through Hogg and Craig's Introduction to Mathematical Statistics, deriving the theoretical underpinnings of stastitical methology and probability theory.  Worked under Larry Shear on this.  he is fairly intense and more than slightly competent by most standards (standards of statisticians, not rank amatures like me).

And last of the general theoretical stastictics books, Noel Cressie's Statistics for Spatial Data.  Noel was/is pretty much a spatial stats diety.  He makes Larry look like milk toast for breakfast.  I spent a semester with him and a dozen of his and other Stats PhD students learning how to work with spatially organized data.  Application of spatial stats to shooting would be an interesting idea since a group on a target is nothing less than a map of events in space and time, but point-process analyses, or some sort of cludged variogram/kriging technique might be a whole lot more work than it's worth.  It would be great, I think, for diagnosing an potentially busted scope however, and probably other things as well.

None of these, btw, rely on range or semi-interquartile range to do anything useful.   

So, there you have it.  My "library" as it were (and is) and my background.  For an ecologist, I'm probably in the middle of the pack with respect to using stats, but a good bit ahead of the pack with respect to statistical training.  I'm surely no professional statistician, but I play with them (professional statisticians every day Smiley 

So, I'll stick with that.  Something like 10 courses in statistical training and 25+ years of doing it is quite enough to get me down the road to better shooting analyses. 

End Part I   
Brent
  
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Brent
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #42 - Jul 26th, 2004 at 11:39am
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Part II,

As for the in/out of control thing, I still find that quite strange.  Clearly, environmental variation will intrude on any experiment.  Indeed, in a plugged tunnel, there will still be environmental intrusions on the process.  On top of that, there is, of course, measurement error.  Perhaps because "SQC" does not involve experimentation per se, you are unfamiliar with the process of experimental design, analysis for nonrandom extraneous factors, etc, etc.  Simple ANOVA's will deal with these sorts of issues quite handily and they have been around for a long long time, and are currently taught in most elementary statistics courses.  The first two texts above will cover them quite well, if you feel the need.  

So, where to go from here?  Joe, I think you are more or less like that 5% of students I deal with year in year out.  Don't know, don't want to learn.  I'm paid to deal with them anyway.  I'm not paid to deal with you.  If you want to keep beating on this horse.  Go ahead, but I'm moving on.  

So, I leave you with this closing quote from Sokal and Rolf discussing your beloved “range” and also the archaic “semi-interquartile range.”  

Since the range is a measure of the span of the variates along the scale of the variable, it is the same units as the original measurements.  The range is clearly affected by even a single outlining value and for this reason is only a rough estimate of the dispersion of all the items in the sample.  It is also affected by sample size.  The greater the sample, the wider the range of observations, on the average.  

Another measure of dispersion, now largely of historical interest, is the quartile deviation.  This statistic, also know as the semi-interquartile range, is computed as
QD= ½ (Q3-Q1) 
where Q3 and Q1 are the third and first quartiles of the distribution, respectively.  Although this statistic gives an adequate description of the dispersion in the central half of the distribution, it obviously does not take the tails of the distribution into consideration and thus it suffers from defects opposite to those of the range; that is, while the range is determined by outliners and ignores the distribution of times close to the meanQD is not affected by items lying beyond Q1 and Q3
.” {my bold and underlining}

Sokal and Rolf, at this point begin to define and use Standard Deviation for the remaining 800 pages of introductory experimental statistics, beginning, “A desirable measure of dispersion will take all items of a distribution into consideration, weighting each item by its distance from the center of the distribution.  We shall now try to construct such a statistic…

Standard Deviations, like scoring a target in competition, use all of the data.  It is not overly affected by just one bad shot, nor is it ignorant of them.   Thus, it becomes a good estimate of the repeatability of a process.   

Enough said on this topic of range vs SD.

Movin’ on…

Brent
  
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PETE
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #43 - Jul 26th, 2004 at 3:22pm
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  Good! I'm glad we're movin' on.

  Three of us had a little fun with this... at Brent's expense this past weekend..... which is why he's probably a little owly today!  Smiley

  Without boring you with the details todays shooting really pointed up the "out of control", or the more commonly called "flyer". Some of the groups were REALLY out of control and it was interesting, with our messages on this as witness, that the really bad shots would show up on the chronograph with big changes in MV's, and a final large SD/ES.

  But.... All these would have been pretty obvious without the chronograph data.

  I had one tho that would have had some thinking maybe there was something wrong with that bullet. The group was 2 1/8", with 4 in 15/16". Without the chronograph I would probably fire this a coupla more times to see if that " flyer" was just a fluke shot. But the chronograph showed that altho the MV averaged in that sweet spot of around 1405 fps, the SD was 33.9 and the ES was 90.3. Since I know with this gun I need to get the SD's below 10, I can pretty safely say this load isn't worth expending anymore time on.

  To me it's cases like these that make Statistical Analysis a shortcut to finding the best load.

  But, what's really needed is something that can take a series of tests, with nearly identical results, and compare them to see which is best, such as I mentioned where I was having trouble determining whether 1-25 or 1-30 was the best alloy to use. Something that doesn't take a rocket scientist to apply.

  To me this is why I don't think SA is a practical option for most people to use. Taking the group above as an example, if I didn't have a chronograph it would have been a lot easier for me to just fire a coupla more groups to get the answer rather than to spend hours(?) using SA to come up with an answer, IF I even understood which part of SA to use in the first place. What we need is a better mousetrap!

PETE
  
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GWarden
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #44 - Jul 26th, 2004 at 4:37pm
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One thing that keeps coming up now is on groups. Pete and I shoot together on a 100yd range. I'm trying to develop the best load in my 32/40. What is best for working up best loads, to use 5 or 10 shot groups. I know that one cannot go my just one group, but I am currently shooting 10 shot groups, and shooting several of each load. What is the advantage of 10 shot over 5 shot groups, or the other way around. I know that using the chrono with the 10 shot groups it is beneficial for the info from the chrono.  This is my first year in schuetzen, and Pete got me hooked good, so I'm full of questions on all aspects of this great shooting sport.
Pete has helped  me from trying to reinvent the wheel.
Bob
  

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