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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) The Mystery of Standard Deviations (Read 65441 times)
JDSteele
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #60 - Nov 7th, 2004 at 1:22pm
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Pete, your pursuit of PA & DA differences is most interesting. You may be onto something there.

A factor you may want to consider is the presence of what Aerial Applicators (cropdusters) call 'dead spots'. These are small isolated areas where the Ground Effect is nullified by the extremely low air pressure immediately next to the ground. The reason for this phenomenon is unknown to me but the effect is VERY noticable when flying along only 6-10 feet above the ground with crop vegetation reaching up 2-6 feet. The sudden decrease in under-wing air pressure has killed many by causing an immediate 6-foot drop in altitude & then the vegetation snaring the wheels. This, along with power lines/guy wires and engine failures, has caused the majority of duster crashes in this area.

This may be a factor only when vegetation is present, or only in the extremely hot weather here in the South & Midwest, several dusters have expressed this opinion, but who knows? I only know that in hot weather areas of unexpectedly low pressure immediately next to the ground ARE a fact, and that they can be very small in size relatively speaking (~10' to ~50' dia). So it might be worthwhile to place your measuring instruments at several points along the bullet's path just to check their differences if any.

Just goes to show how many variables MAY be out there, some that we might never suspect in a hundred lifetimes.

Another observation re the range: neither of THE two MOST influential real-world testing entities in the US (Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the American Society for Testing & Materials) has much to say about the range as a variability indicator. They both concentrate on the SD and Coefficient of Variation as testing criteria.

To me this nullifies any argument between textbooks or 'experts' since you can always find some textbook or some expert somewhere that will espouse the most ridiculous theories imaginable. Remember 'New Math' & 'Whole Language', two of the most tragic boondoggles ever conceived? Some schools are actually still teaching these two theories long after they've been proven to be nothing more than some so-called expert's ill-conceived and untested pipe dream.

But SD & C of V are respected and established criteria used in a real-life situation to protect real people's lives every day. I've personally seen several nuclear workers put in jail for not following these established testing protocols, that's how serious the NRC & ASTM consider the subject. That's good enough for me. But of course YMMV and anyone is free to use the range if they like in this non-dangerous situation of testing group sizes.
Good luck, Joe
  
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PETE
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #61 - Nov 7th, 2004 at 6:12pm
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Joe,

  I guess you could say I'm fully aware of what the nuclear regulatory agency wants as I spent quite a few years as a nuclear welder and having to qualify yearly under Section 8 & 9 of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, using positions 1G thru 7G.

  But you're right on about flight calculations being a part of Pressure (PA) & Density(DA) Altitude. A pilot who shoots quite a bit of LR is where I got the idea. He uses this method for sight setting changes. I'm not sure whether this method will work at Schuetzen distances since changes will be quite small compared to 1000 yds., and might be lost in wind and mirage and other factors. 

  But I want to take it a step further. As you know bench shooters will often change their powder charges between relays because they felt their groups weren't going like they should. In all the years I've read about these shooters I've never heard mention of "how" they knew which way to go. Is this by chance, long experience, or have they some "formula" that tells them which way to go?

  I'm figuring that since changes in group size are due to changes other than MV/SD/ES if you haven't changed anything in your load, then, if a load starts to go "bad" during a match it must be due to some exterior influence.

  As we know humid air is less dense than dry air, so as the humidity level changes from the early morning hours to late afternoon, might not this difference make a difference in the bullets flight? If this is so then we would have to change our load slightly to get back on track.

  To take an example..... Where I live is 970 ft. Above Sea Level. Doing the calculations I've seen PA go as low as 805 ft. to 1008 ft. in the course of half a day. Doing the calculations for DA I've seen that run from 1000 ft. to 3010 ft. within the same time frame. Of course since temp. (C.) is a part of figuring DA that has to be taken into consideration.

  So, a lot going on when we shoot and it all has a negative effect on our shooting unless we can learn to deal with it.

  As for SD being a respected way of testing things..... I'll certainly agree with that. I'm just not sure that considering the variables we shoot under, that it can be used to generate 95% certainty for a load. As Joe pointed out, if the average group size for two loads is within 1%, not an unreasonable expectation when determining differences in two loads, you would have to fire over 4000 five shot groups in order to reach the excepted 95% accuracy level to be sure you have the right load. Even for a difference of 10%, firing 38 groups is bordering on undoable.

  So far no one who supports Statistical Analysis (SA) has said what is a reasonable number of groups to fire. That's all I ask! If a number can be brought forth that is reasonable, then I can use SA as a method to predict load confidence. Otherwise I don't believe it's totally applicable to shooting unless you want to spend that kind of time and money to prove things out, and I will continue to do it the "old fashioned" way.

PETE
  
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joeb33050
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #62 - Nov 8th, 2004 at 6:19am
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I don't know what PA and DA are. Atmospheric pressure varies with weather (slightly) and altitude (greatly) and temperature, and in some sense is a measure of how many air atoms your bullet hits on the way to the target. Water vapor/humidity is included, so add water molecules hit. Then dust and pollution and ??? But pressure = pressure, no?
A 1% difference in group size is from (ex)1" to .990", at the border of measuring ability. A 10% difference is from .750" to .675", still very small. Put some numbers down, calculate the difference, look at the table, and you'll see that the number of groups to be shot isn't way out of line. 
The table shows the number of groups required for a given level of confidence at a given level of difference in group size. These are the "reasonable" numbers. Numbers of groups selected using experience or common sense are "unreasonable". "Common sense is that body of prejudice acquired by the age of eighteen." Al Einstein
joe b.
  
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PETE
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #63 - Nov 8th, 2004 at 10:17pm
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Joe,

  Sorry to read you think I'm prejudiced against SD and SA, and have your mind set that anything I have to say is not valid. Einstein was right!  Smiley  Guess we better drop the whole idea.

  I guess if you don't know what PA and DA is then you have some more to learn. That's the part I like about shooting. There are so many things I don't know, and so many avenues to explore. Short of giving a lesson on how to calculate both these conditions, what I wrote in my last message gives a general idea of what they are and a little on how they are, and possibly could be, used in shooting.

  Besides it should be put into another thread if there was any interest!

PETE
  
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FAsmus
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #64 - Nov 12th, 2004 at 1:42pm
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Joe,

I'm the fellow Pete mentioned in regard to the DA question.

The low-level crop duster fellows are probably encountering pockets of low density air. Bubbles, as it were, of extra warming in the field they're flying. It wouldn't take all that much of a temperature difference to reduce lift momentarily and drop the airplane several feet as you mention. At such low heights, things get critical in a hurry.

I can tell you "sky stories" elsewhere. Here, we'll keep it close to shooting talk.

Pete and I cussed and discussed the Pressure and Density altitude considerations at length via email and Pete, surprizing me, went out and bought the necessary simple computers (mechanical) needed to calculate these things.

As he says, at relativly short ranges the differences may not be clearly visable against the background of other variables but he intends to find out. I am very interested in seeing his results!

I got into figuring for DA as temperatures changed over the course of a day's shooting on the Montana prairie. We would carefully shoot and record sight elevations in the morning for the different distances used in the Match but as the day got hotter and hotter these numbers became less and less helpful! 

I realized what had to be going on and since that time I have always included a thermometer and a simple computer as a part of my shooting kit. 

As I shoot in load development for a given rifle and load I record what the DA is for setting sight elevation for that combination on my sight-setting card and keep it with the rifle all the time. Over time I obtain settings for differing density altitudes, ranging over the various temperatures and elevations we shoot in here in Wyoming.

I have never fired a shot in DA any lower than about 2000 feet since when it gets that cold out here my trigger finger no longer works very well.

Good morning,
Forrest
  
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PETE
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #65 - Nov 13th, 2004 at 9:36am
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Forrest,

 Glad you chimed in on this, as I'm sure I might not have gotten things exactly right in this PA, DA thing. "Cuss and discuss" is right!  Smiley Lots of cussing on my part before I got it thru my thick head what had to be done. PA almost had me giving up!

 Just sitting here reading your message and note that you said you've never shot below a DA of 2000 ft. For the record Forrest lives at 4000 ft. It got me wondering, so I figured out my PA & DA right now. PA is 324 ft. and DA 1328 ft.

 But then a thought hit me. That's using an inside temp. of 72 deg.'s F. and the outside temp is 35 deg.'s. So figured that out and it comes to a PA of 314 ft., and a DA of 1140. When you know that my actual altitude is 970 ft. you can see how the changes are, and how they can affect POI, and possibly group size because of the different air resistance.

 For those not up to speed on this you can see the changes in DA and that's what Forrest uses, as it changes, for changing his sight settings.

 You might wonder why we have PA in there. The calculation for DA is determined by the PA and the current temp. in deg.'s C. PA is figured by adding or subtracting a set amount from the actual barometric pressure using the "Standard" of 29.92 inches of mercury as your base. This figure is then used on the "computer" to figure the DA.

 Sounds kind of complicated, and I'm probably not explaining it exactly right, but it's pretty easy once you get the hang of it. OR..... You can buy a Kestrel 4000 and it does the figuring of both for you!  Smiley

PETE
  
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Asst
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #66 - Nov 13th, 2004 at 11:06am
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Why do any ciphering, buy an electronic Altimeter.  It shows you the changes in the DA as they happen. If you get one that includes a barometer and hygrometer, and wind meter you got the whole ball of wax.
  
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PETE
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #67 - Nov 13th, 2004 at 6:37pm
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Keith,

  That's why I suggested buying the Kestrel 4000. It's advertised in Precision Shooting. It'll do everything you mentioned and a whole lot more. But, you'll have to calibrate it for a known barometer setting and the altitude of your current location, in the right order. Not for the faint of heart either as the instructions aren't any to clear in that area.

  Another very big BUT. The Kestel costs about $325 and a flight computer costs $12. If you can afford the former, go for it. If not, a person can do a lot of calculating for $300.

  It sounds complicated because I'm not a very good teacher. But once you grasp the idea it just takes a minute or so to come up with DA. Less when you get the hang of it, as when I do it things seem to be backwards of what they should be so it takes a little time to be sure I've got it right.

  Grasping PA was what got to me and only because I was assuming things that weren't true so my calculation for that was skewed. One of the problems of trying to get an idea across over a period of several days emailing. As you can see by what we've got here now, and we haven't even got into doing any "work"!  Smiley

  Once you have PA then you just plug that and deg. C. into the computer and DA is the result. The only other known you need is the altitude of the range you're shooting at. Those can be gotten frorn USGS topo maps that are free for the downloading off the web.

PETE
  
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FAsmus
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #68 - Nov 14th, 2004 at 8:14am
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The interest in figuring for Density Altitude here is a satisfaction to me. 

Somehow, although I know that changes in elevation and temperture affect the flight of (anything) through the air the fellows who I shoot with the most here In Wyoming pay little attention to it.

I hope that there may be some more scientific consideration given to the whys and wherefores of the bullet's flight here on ASSRA.

I will be looking in and available for comment on this subject as days pass.

For now, it is time to go shooting.

Good morning,
Forrest
  
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PETE
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #69 - Nov 14th, 2004 at 3:00pm
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Forrest,

  Looks like there is some interest considering the number of views. But like most other threads on here, everybody wants to "suck" the info up without contributing to it by offering info or asking questions. Seems to be a real lack of curiosity on here.

  That's why I've been purposely vague on how to do the figuring, and what you do it with. Us two know what we're talking about yet we're the only ones participating. Not much sense going over what we've hashed out in private email if there's not enuf interest for people to ask.

PETE
  
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FAsmus
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #70 - Nov 14th, 2004 at 9:32pm
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Pete,

I'm back from shooting.

Something kept bothering me about your post I responded to this morning so I looked at it again.

Your DA number is good for the indoor temperature but for the outside temperature of 35 degrees F or just about zero C I get a DA of - 1200 feet or so. (That is 1200 feet below sea level) The outside air at your location, barometric pressure and temperature is pretty thick stuff! Thicker in fact than a "Standard Day" of 59 degrees and 29.92 " at sealevel.

Since you're pretty close to sealevel and the temperature is well below 59 degrees look for DAs of lower than sealevel itself!

In Alaska I've seen DA go as far as 3 - 4000  feet Below sealevel on cold winter days north of the Brooks Range.

Roger the thread's responce about our subject. 

It is hard to do anything "new" in the shooting game as we have seen, posting about the old-timers shooting Creedmoor rifles with brometers, thermometers and so forth to figure condition. Now-a-days such things are unknown, indeed to the extent and degree that folks probably tend to discount the value of any such detailed concern about shooting in "condition" at long range.

In my game, if I can nail that first hit in the relay I am sooo far ahead of the game compared to shooting a first shot miss that it is hard to describe! Condition is everything!

Good evening,
Forrest

  
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GWarden
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #71 - Nov 14th, 2004 at 10:52pm
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Pete has been explaining it to me, and it is another thing that can possibly help with our shooting. After he explained it to me, I remember one Sat. last summer we were shooting in our league, took a lunch break. When I shot my next relay I though someone had messed with my scope, as it was shooting higher than before lunch. I know that Brent didn't mess with the scope as he was with Pete and I. This DA really sounds like it can help if one wants to get with the program and keep a record of conditions. We're not all just sitting back. If Pete doesn't share his Kestrel, probably have to dig up the jar in the back yard and gete some money out to buy one( always need another toy)
Bob
  

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JDSteele
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #72 - Nov 15th, 2004 at 12:01am
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Way back when I first started flying I was told by an FAA guy that the DA at one particular local crash scene (Mississippi) was 3500 ft at the time of the crash. Now when you consider that our local airport elevation is +106 ft MSL (above mean sea level) and the crash scene is even lower, that's QUITE a difference! Of course we shouldn't see a 4000 ft difference in DA in one day but I bet we could see half of that or more under some conditions.

However, my concept of DA is rudimentary & I'd appreciate it if someone more knowledgeable could comment about how much difference we could expect. Sure would be nice if we could come up with some kinda formula for elevation corrections. Even a SWAG would get us started in the right direction.
ttfn, Joe
  
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FAsmus
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #73 - Nov 15th, 2004 at 10:52am
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Bob,

Bob: If Pete doesn't share his Kestrel, probably have to dig up the jar in the back yard and gete some money out to buy one( always need another toy)

F:  Pete doesn't have a Kestrel I don't believe. He went out and bought a E6B at his local airport. Cost: $12

This is a simple mechanical computer, no batteries, two moving parts and some numbers around the dial.

This, a thermometer, one calculation and a spin of the wheel and you've the DA displayed under the little arrow. 

It will save you from the high/low miss if the temperature changes over the course of your lunch period or any other delay.

Good morning,
Forrest
  
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FAsmus
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Re: The Mystery of Standard Deviations
Reply #74 - Nov 15th, 2004 at 11:05am
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Joe,

Joe says: However, my concept of DA is rudimentary & I'd appreciate it if someone more knowledgeable could comment about how much difference we could expect. Sure would be nice if we could come up with some kinda formula for elevation corrections. Even a SWAG would get us started in the right direction.

F:  I have been recording sight elevations for differing density altitudes for some years now.

I'm a simple kind of shooter in that I find a good load and then shoot it with no changes for long periods of time. This allows me to use the recorded elevation numbers for that load where ever I go shooting since regardless of where a fellow goes he may run the numbers for DA at that location and rely on the fact that his elevations will repeat!

I am not enough of a numbers man to figure out the formula to preset elevation by use of a calulator. 

What I try to do is shoot the rifle over the whole course of fire we have here in Wyoming, (Our distances run from 395 yards out to 1000) all on the same day and hopefully on a so-called "Standard" day as a base line for that rifle and load.

A "Standard Day" here at 4000 feet MSL is 41 degrees F at 29.92" (Corrected for elevation).

Thus you see why I don't do much shooting at DAs of 2000 feet: It is much too cold for lube and other variables to maintain consistency when things cool off below 30 degrees F. Things like my trigger finger for example!

Good morning,
Forrest
  
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