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PETE
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Flyers
Jul 13th, 2004 at 11:11am
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I think this is a problem we all have at one time or another. Right now I'm having this problem with a Schoyen/Ballard in .32/40, so am wondering what you all do to solve this problem.

  The first problem could be me, and I'm not discounting that. But things were fairly decent today with a very slight wind from 9 o'clock and both the flyers I'll mention were out at 12. The SD's were pretty good and four of the five shots indicated the results should have been good.... which they were except for the flyer.

  The bullet I'm using is a 205 gr. cast, & bump swaged. First group was shot with 14.2 grs. of 4227. Four shots into .179" and the out flyer made it 15/16".  SD was 6.4. Second group was shot with 14.4 grs. of 4227. Four shots into 1/2" and the flyer made it 3/4". SD was 2.9.

  Maybe I'm picking at nits, but I think either one of these loads should have shot better, and would have if not for the flyer. So, I'd like to hear some comments on what you think I could do to bring those flyers into the group.

PETE
  
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JDSteele
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Re: Flyers
Reply #1 - Jul 13th, 2004 at 12:36pm
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First it might help to know what you're already doing. I assume (!?!?!) that you're using a single case and that you're orienting it the same way for each shot. I also assume (there's that word again) that you're orienting your bullets in the chamber/case as well, via a mark in the mould or some such.

I try to mark the position and number each impact point on a target kept at the bench. Occasionally have identified a 'walking' bbl as well as peculiarities in my bench technique that would cause a particular shot in the series to go astray. For instance if the last shot in each series is the flier, that would indicate to me that perhaps my lube was failing or that I was anticipating the recoil since it was the last shot, etc etc.

But your groups seem pretty darn good to me. Unless you have a similar flier in every group, it may be what aviators call "Just one of those things."
ttfn & good luck, Joe
  
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Jim_Borton
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Re: Flyers
Reply #2 - Jul 13th, 2004 at 4:11pm
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Shocked I think it`s because of the lube!!!! To much of it!!! try removing lube form one grease groove at a time and see what happens!!!!
I had a bullet mould made up with just 3 lube groove, NO FLIER ANYMORE!!!
I`ve also push this bullet at a high Vel. and had no leading problems!!!
  

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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #3 - Jul 13th, 2004 at 4:38pm
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Joe,
  Yep! All your assumptions are correct. I have my bullets marked, as well as the seater, so the bullet is oriented into the throat as perfectly as possible. Even tho I use one case I also have that marked so it can be oriented in the chamber. This might be over kill, but it makes me happy.  Smiley

  Like you I usually keep track of which shot takes a trip outside the group. In this case it was the 2nd and fourth, respectively. The foulers go onto a separate target and are number to their target so I can see how far out it is from the group and if I need more than one from a clean gun or after changing targets. I do all this on the 6 bull target so it's pretty easy to check things when I want.

  I probably should have kept track of the velocity of each flyer to see if it was the high or low MV, but didn't. Something to keep track of tomorrow.

  Like you say. It could very well be one of those things, altho as close as the SD's are, I'm tending to think it's either some fault of the load, or me! Dew point was very high today and had to keep dusting the rear bag so the gun wouldn't stick.

Jim,
  Now there is an interesting idea. When I proposed this idea of "lube purging" on a BP List a few years back I got laughed at. I pretty well proved to my own satisfaction that this does happen, and like you will leave some lube grooves empty to see what happens.

  The problem here tho is that I am bump swaging the bullet and as such if the lube grooves aren't full this will tend to collapse it. I suppose I could try clearing off a groove or two after swaging to see what happens.

  Good idea and worth a try. Thanks!

PETE
  
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mes
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Re: Flyers
Reply #4 - Jul 13th, 2004 at 10:09pm
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Pete:
Maybe the wind did it. I accuse them nasty little wind gremlins sneaking between my wind flags for some of my flyers.  I am too lazy to put out more flags to catch them at it.
  

Martin Stenback
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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #5 - Jul 14th, 2004 at 10:58am
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Martin,
 I guess the saying that you can't have to many windflags out is true. I'm not discounting the wind, or mirage catching me out to lunch. But, I would have expected the shot to be to the right instead of up, since both the little wind there was, and mirage, were running to the right. I also don't expect to repeat that 4 shots in .179 either. I put that down as all the errors running to the same spot, till that flyer.

 Today I thought I'd try altering the seating depth. Since the 14.4 grs. of 4227 gave the best overall group I did that first so as t ouse it as a bench mark. As you'll recall that load shot 3/4" yesterday and today shot 7/8" with a flyer at 4 o'clock. That seating depth was 1/16" ahead of the case and engraved about 1/2 the base band. Increased the seating depth by 1/32". Group was the same 7/8" but two shots were out at 1 o'clock. Figured that might be the wrong way to go, so decreased the seating depth by 1/32" from the original 1/16". The 14.4 gr. load shot into 3/4" and it's pretty hard to say there were any flyers. Last target I dropped the powder charge to 14.2, and that gave a 5/8" group. Three into one hole and two slightly high. Again, it would be hard to say there are any flyers in the group.

 Tomorrow I think I'll try an alloy of 1-20 and see if that tightens things up a bit. If that doesn't do it then I'll try Jim's lube idea.

PETE
  
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40_Rod
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Re: Flyers
Reply #6 - Jul 14th, 2004 at 12:13pm
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Pete Here is some stuff to think about.

1)  When you bump your bullets up are they lubed first?

2)  If you are casting and bumping your bullets there is no need for a witness mark if the base on your bump die is at a right angle to the long axis if the bullet and the die is concentric. The mark may be doing more harm than good.

3) Try using less lube, I am down to a .33 cal 213 gr. bullet with only 3 .040 lube grooves and still no leading.

4) try movenig your wing flags around to see if there is a condition that you are not reading. Often a change in wind direction will change where your flags should be. Like an up draft at a small rise in the range. Or just the way the wind filters through the trees.

Hope some of this helps.

40 Rod
  
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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #7 - Jul 14th, 2004 at 12:58pm
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40_Rod,
  To answer your questions.

#1 - Yes the bullets are pan lubed before swaging. The cast bullet is tapered and all the bump die does is straighten every thing up and square the base to the sides, and make sure the base edge is nice a sharp.

#2 - A possibility for sure, altho the bumping almost erases the mark. I always mark the moulds. Maybe a bad habit! I think Mann pretty well proved that you can do just about anything to the nose of a bullet without loss of accuracy, but the base has to be as perfect as you can make it.

#3 - This is on the agenda. Possibly Friday if things don't show improvement tomorrow with the 1-20 alloy. From what I read in the CBA's magazine they have one guy who swears that he can shoot bullets with no lube at all, and at MV's approaching 2500 fps., and not getting any Leading. Flyers that can be attributed to the lube are definitely caused by lube purging.

#4 - This could be a cause to that I'm not ruling out. GWarden will be shooting with me tomorrow and between us we ought to have enuf flags!  Smiley Both of our flags are made with surveyors tape so even the slightest air movement will show up. The problem our range has is that the 50 yd. berm is at 9 o'clock and the prevailing wind is from 7 to 10 o'clock, so we never discount that the wind might be playing with us.

PETE


PETE
  
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40_Rod
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Re: Flyers
Reply #8 - Jul 15th, 2004 at 8:15am
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Pete 
This is a definate possibility that the wind is moveing the bullet up as it travels over the burim. At Asheville the first 100 yards is at the shooters level and the last 100 in about 15' higher. I have seen windflags placed at the edge of the bank stand stright up when the wind is from 4:00 to 5:00.
40 Rod
  
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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #9 - Jul 15th, 2004 at 2:37pm
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40_Rod,
  You don't know how we pray for a nice flat range that will allow a steady breeze to flow across it. The local range is pretty good if the wind is from 1 to 3 o'clock. It usually get all the flags going in the same direction and showing the same force. Where we hold ourt matches has the 25, 50, & 00 yd. berms to the prevailing wind side. A couple of the guys can shoot pretty good there but the rest of us are still trying to figure it out.

  Well, if nothing else I found out something today. Don't shoot within 10 ft. of a wall! Have set up on this bench before and couldn't figure out why, when I did, the groups would go all to pot. Finally dawned on me today that maybe it would create the same effect that Mannfound when extending a board out under the muzzle of the gun. Moved over a coupla benches and the groups came back in. Of course this was after I'd shot up half my bullets for the tests today so will have to repeat tomorrow.

  GWARDEN tried out reducing the lube by one groove and maybe when he gets done doing the measuring he can put in his opinion on what he found. Star on the muzzle still felt greasy so it would appear as tho there's still enough lube present.

PETE
  
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Dale53
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Re: Flyers
Reply #10 - Jul 15th, 2004 at 3:53pm
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Pete;
Whether or not it is lube purging or something else, it is pretty much demonstrated that "too much" lube CAN be detrimental. So, I agree with Jim and others who have suggested that. However, none has mentioned that it depends on what lube you are using. If you are using an "ordinary" lube (whatever that is) you made need every bit of it to avoid leading. However, if you are using a "good" lube (NRA's Alox/Beeswax comes to mind, just as an example) you may be better off by using less than a full bullet. This was even documented in pistols by E.H. Harrison's epic work when testing pistols and revolvers off a machine rest.

Therefore, it will be helpful when discussing this possible problem, to identify which lube you are using and what velocity range you are shooting at. Tom Gray, of the Cast Bullet Ass'n wrote the first words that I read on lube purging. He was using a lube (secret) of his own which he sells and is apparently very good (going by the record targets he shot and at high velocities). Of course, I believe that Tom only uses gas check bullets and shoots at relatively high velocities but the principles still apply.

FWIW
Dale53
  
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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #11 - Jul 16th, 2004 at 10:33am
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Dale53,
  The lube I use is Steve Garbe's SPG. Has worked very well on everything I shoot, both black and smokeless, from .22 to .50 cal. The velocities I'm running in with the Schoyen/Ballard have been running from 1390 to 1440 fps, depending of course on the load..... 14.0 to 14.6 grs. IMR 4227.

  I also like Javelina's alox/beeswax, but have found over the years that it doesn't work well below 60 degrees. I've taken SPG down to 35 degrees with no loss of accuracy.

  I want to save decreasing the amount of lube I use till toward the last of the load development. Not because I don't think it won't work, if needed, but more to my bullet leaving a very light amount of lube at the muzzle as it is. Barely enuf to be able to tell it feels greasy when wiped off.

  Not sure where I first read of lube purging, but might have been something Tom wrote. Made sense to me at the time, so thought I'd try it with my BP shooting. Since I'm mostly a target shooter with that powder, and wipe between shots, I wondered if I really needed all the lube that the "dirty" shooters seem to think they need. I found that in my .45/70 using the Lyman 457125 and SPG I could decrease the amount of lube by two grooves with no Leading and increased accuracy from what a full load gave. Strangely enuf with the right load it even worked well in the NCOWS Buffalo match where you shoot 25 rounds in 10 minutes, and didn't experience any Leading there either, or loss of accuracy from what I'd been getting with a full load of lube. Trying the same method in my .50/90 using either a 575 gr. Brooks, or the NEI/Gunn 605 gr. bullet with SPG I found I needed to have all the grooves filled or else I got a small amount of Leading, and some loss of accuracy.

  So, we also have to look at the design of the bullet as being a factor in whether or not you can decrease the amount of lube. The bullet I'm using was made by my gunsmith, but follows pretty closely Barnett's .32 cal. 200 gr. design. If you are aware of this design you'll know it has very narrow/shallow grease grooves. So altho lube purging might be a problem it can be considered pretty low on the probability scale.

PETE
  
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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #12 - Jul 16th, 2004 at 5:25pm
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MP,
 Hard saying what the commercial alox/beeswax actually contains anymore. Used to use Tamaracks A/B but they changed something in it a few years back and it wasn't the same stuff. Think the ywent from yellow beeswax to bleached. That's why I switched to Javelina. As far as I can tell it's the same as the original formula.

 But read/saw somewhere that Alox was bought out and they no longer sell 2138F, altho they say only the number has been changed. Apparently had to do with combining numbers so one product didn't have two numbers..... so they say. Used to be the smallest size you could get it in was 5 gallons. Not sure now what the minimum would be, but even that would be a little pricey if it turns out not to be the real McCoy. So will let someone else be the guinea pig.  Smiley

PETE
  
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40_Rod
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Re: Flyers
Reply #13 - Jul 16th, 2004 at 5:37pm
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Pete 
I think that the purging problem is when the bullet movement overtakes the lubes ability to apply itself to the inside of the bore. Soft lubes do not present the problem that hard lubes do. It is only when the bullet squeezes up faster than the lube can spread then we get a stutter in bullet something has to give and if the lube won't then the lead has to. So mabey the answer isn,t that we need less lube what we need is either softer lube or slower speeds. 

40 Rod
  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #14 - Jul 16th, 2004 at 11:16pm
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As Pete mentioned I gave it a try of not lubing the top band on my Hoch base pour bullet 25:1 for my 32/40. I am using Emmert's lube with a load of 14.2 of IMR 4227 with Rem 2 1/2 primers for a av. vel 1349.  I tried this on only one target but shot a 10 shot group of .7  . Want to try this more and in a clean barrel. I had shot several targets with all the lube grooves filled at first.
Bob
  

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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #15 - Jul 17th, 2004 at 8:18am
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40_Rod,
  Wish I could remember exactly how what I've seen on lube purging was written. As I got it if to much lube is present it will slowly be built up in the bore because the following shot can't wipe it out. When it reaches a certain point where the bullet is squeezed down enuf to force a cleanout, you get a wild shot.

  To hard, or to soft lube might play a part in how often this purging takes place, and it might mean, as you say, a softer lube would work better allowing the "wiping" out of the bore by the next shot better.

  But we have one other factor that has to be considered to. Fouling! Those that come from a strictly BP shooting experience sometimes get the impression that just because they can't see any fouling in their barrel that there isn't any. Not true!

  If there is to much lube, soft or to hard.... take your pick.... then it will pick up fouling faster. It's pretty well known that smokeless powders create a fouling ring just in front of the chamber. Some types worse than others. Instead of lube purging we might have to change the wording to fouling purging. Barry Darr has mentioned when he notices his accuracy starting to fall off he will stop and clean this fouling ring out.

  So, whether it's to much lube, or to hard, or a combination of lube and fouling, it will be purged from the barrel if not dealt with by either cleaning, or changes in lube/powder, you are gonna get a flyer once in a while that you can't account for.

  I'd sure welcome further comments on this as it's pretty much what I'm thinking and not really backed up by any evidence.

PETE
  
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ole7groove
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Re: Flyers
Reply #16 - Jul 17th, 2004 at 7:45pm
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Pete:

I don't think I can buy into this lube purging thing, although I do beleive there is such a thing as too much lubrication. Too much lubrication is more a fault of very deep grease grooves which structurally effect the bullet allowing the bullet bases to slug up differently shot to shot. I have noticed that some combinations of powder, primer and lube cause a fouling condition to occur, this condition is a hard glass like substance in the throat area and will cause erratic muzzle velocities. Cleaning with JB Bore Paste will restore accuracy and consistant MV (with proper load). Recent testing has revealed that minimum lubrication will suffice to velocities over 1600fs (plain base bullets), throat fouling occuring before "leading".

Best Regards,
  
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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #17 - Jul 18th, 2004 at 9:00am
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ole7groove,

  Glad to see you back on the Forum again.

  You bring up an interesting point. Erratic MV's!

  Lets take my case as an example because I'd like your input on what constitutes erratic MV's. In other words, how much variation do you have to have before you'd consider it erratic?

  The following groups were shot in very calm conditions early in the morning, and no shots were called out, altho I'm not ruling out shooter error. The best example would be a group of 3/4" with 4 in a tight 1/2". 14.4 grs. of 4227 with a MV of 1425.9 fps and the SD was 2.9 with an ES of 6.1. This was the 3rd group of the day. The worst example of a flyer was that 15/16" group with 4 in .179", using 14.2 grs. of 4227, at a MV of 1416.0 fps and an SD of 6.4, and ES of 17.8. This was the 2nd group of the day. All the rest of the groups shot with these two powder charges will fall in between in group size, MV, SD, & ES.

  It's my understanding that for smokeless powder either one of the above isn't to bad. So what causes the flyer? Lube? Fouling? Both? Or something else?

  You mention minimum lube will work up to 1600 fps. I guess I need to tie you down a little more. Minimum can cover a lot of territory.   Smiley

  My bullet has 6 grease grooves .045" wide and ,011" deep. Jim Borton mentioned his "old" bullet had 5 grease grooves of virtually the same dimensions and had a mould made up of the same design with 3 grooves of the same dimensions. Jim claims better accuracy and no Leading! So, I guess the question is..... what grease groove dim.'s do you recommend and what did you put on your designs?

Jim:-

  OK! You've convinced me.  Smiley I lubed up a batch of bullets with just 4 of the 6 grooves lubed and we'll see what happens Monday.

PETE
  
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Dale53
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Re: Flyers
Reply #18 - Jul 18th, 2004 at 9:29am
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Pete;
Keep up the good work. I am really interested in this subject. I, specifically, am interested in the details. Discussions like this can prove extremely helpful to a lot of people struggling with various issues.


Dale53
  
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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #19 - Jul 18th, 2004 at 9:46am
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Dale53,

  Thanks! That's the whole idea of me starting this thread. I knew how I wanted to proceed with trying to find the cause of flyers, but was also looking for any hints someone else would have. Jim's, and others, recommending reducing the lube is a good idea. It was something I had forgotten about, and probably wouldn't have without the jog to the memory since I felt that I was using a very minimal amount of lube as it was. Jim's private email giving the groove dimensions of his bullet convinced me I should try this out asap.

  I also agree that more discussion on the various problems and how many people solve them is of obvious benefit to us all. As I'm fond of saying..... the more I learn, the more I find out I really don't know much at all. If a SS shooter has one or two buddies close by to compare notes with they are the exception. Most have to try and figure it out for themselves, and that's why I think a Forum like this is so valuable. I'm just disappointed that more of the people who I KNOW have a lot more knowledge than I do don't speak up. Even if we would disagree with each other on a point we all still benefit!

PETE
  
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ole7groove
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Re: Flyers
Reply #20 - Jul 18th, 2004 at 12:53pm
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Pete,

Sorry I haven't been on the forum more lately, I,ve been spending as much time as possible doing some ballistic testing while the good weather lasts (no snow).

The comments I made regarding minimum lubrication refer to the actual experience I have had during Jim Bortons tests here. Jim's 3 groove bullet showed no signs of leading and was actually spraying lube particles on my chrono screens 10ft from the muzzle. Jim did encounter fouling (not leading) at higher velocities which resulted in erratic MV's and enlargement of group sizes. As a result of Jim's tests I am of the current opinion that a 2 GG bullet will have a excellent chance of performing well. 

With respect to not filling all the GG's of bullets, while it may prove that lesser amounts will not cause "leading", I'm not sure that it will prove to add to the accuracy of that bullet, in otherwords a bullet made especially made for less lube would be structurally more sound. In the past when I was making bullet moulds, my designs where round bottom grease grooves, .030 wide x .012 deep for 32 cal with 5 GG's, this design is identical to Jim's 5 groove bullet. If I where to make moulds again, I beleive I'd reduce the depth of the GG's even more, to .005 perhaps and 2 or 3 GG's, ideally no grease grooves I think would be best. 8)

The MV's for Jims 32 Miller are very consistant in every way, single digit ES's and SD's., some of the best I've ever seen regardless whether cast bullet or jacketed. His uniformity is equally well at the downrange screens. 

More test work is needed to suggest any conclusive results, so far this year I've noticed some unexpected trends with cast bullets, but until I complete my testing I prefer to remain mute, lest I sound like a total moroon. ??? Its not that I have secrets, just want to make sure of the facts and not create new myths.

Regards,


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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #21 - Jul 18th, 2004 at 3:33pm
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Barry,
  SNOW!! Must be the liquid variety as the weather reports for your area show lots of that.

  Thanks for clearing up what you think would be minimum lube on the bullet. It's going to be interesting seeing what I come up with tomorrow.

  I agree with you that a mould should be made with the number of grease grooves you want, but this could run into a lot of money with no certainty of results. A problem you didn't mention, but I'm sure you're thinking about, is that reducing the number of grooves filled will lube will lead to a collapse of the bullet in these areas. Off the top of my head, couldn't you adjust the temper? Basically this is what we do to keep the nose from collapsing. With this idea in mind I thought I'd lube up some more bullets using 1-20, & 1-25 as well as the 1-30 I was planning on. It's not gonna be a very extensive test since I'll only have about 3 hours before I'll get kicked off the range, and I'd like to do the whole thing under as similar conditions as I can. So it'll be just a 5 shot group of each alloy with 4 lube grooves filled and a group with all filled. Clean the gun between alloys, and chronograph everything.

PETE

  
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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #22 - Jul 19th, 2004 at 12:42pm
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  Ok! Here's what I came up with on the testing today. Was windy enuf to get the flags standing straight out at times so had to wait for the conditions, so the groups migth not really be indicative of what could have been done.

  Test gun, of course, was the .32/40 Schoyen-Ballard with a 1-16" twist. Bullet was a taper bump swaged Barnett clone weighing 205 grs. with 6 grease grooves. Powder charge was 14.2 grs. of 4227. SPG lube. Rem. 2 1/2 primers. Breech seated 1/32" ahead of the case which engraves the bullet about 1/3rd into the base band. Three alloys were tested..... 1-20, 1-25, & 1-30. Two 5 shot groups were fired with each alloy...... one group with 4 grooves filled with lube, and the other with all grooves filled. All groups measured center to center of widest shots. All shots were chronographed. After each group was fired the gun was cleaned and one fouler shot fired before starting the next group. Here's what I came up with.

1-20 with 4 grooves lubed. Group = 13/16"
MV = 1405.2
SD = 9.4
ES = 25.5

1-20 with all grooves lubed. Group = 5/8"
MV = 1403.2
SD = 5.4
ES = 12.8

1-25 with 4 grooves lubed. Group = 5/8"
MV = 1402.6
SD = 12.8
ES = 30-9

1-25 with all grooves lubed. Group = 3/4"
MV = 1407.9
SD = 5.7
ES = 14.3

1-30 with 4 grooves lubed. Group = 11/16"
MV = 1402.3
SD = 4.7
ES = 12.2

1-30 with  all grooves lubed. Group = 7/8"
MV = 1400.0
SD = 9.4
ES = 23.7

  Since this was a pretty small sample probably nothing conclusive can be taken other than the MV's were fairly steady thru-out the whole test, and the gun seems to like 1-25 best, which has been the case in all previous work.
  Not being a statistician maybe someone else can pull something else out of this. would like to hear about it if you do.

PETE
  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #23 - Jul 19th, 2004 at 3:43pm
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Pete;
From your tests, I would say that not only are you a pretty fair hand with the rifle, the rifle and loads are pretty darn good, also.

Charlie Dell has a statistician friend that tells him that he needs to fire thirty shots of any one combination before he really knows anything. In other words, thirty shots is about the minimum that will give meaningful data. You can shoot more but thirty shots will do for the "likes of us" Smiley. Now that you have the trends established, if you were my employee, I would have you run the same test again, but do thirty shots of each combination...

One thing that I found interesting, as related by Charlie, it doesn't seem to matter much whether you fire the thirty shots in six five shot groups or three ten shot groups. From a statistical standpoint, the results are essentially the same.

Ducking for cover,
Yours truly, Dale53
  
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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #24 - Jul 19th, 2004 at 4:03pm
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Dale53,

  If you knew me better, and as my friends will tell you, I'm never satisfied with what I get out of any rifle. Just gets to the point where I get tired of foolin' with it and move on to something else.

  You and the guy I bought the Schoyen from seem to think that what I get with it are ok, and he claims it's as good as he ever got from it. Well, I think it can do better! Thus the other question about "Another Powder".

  I'll agree, and I'm sure we'll hear the same from Brent, that more shots are really needed to gather enuf data to make an analysis meaningful. I think the data I put up pretty well proves that! But, things could be so close in any event that nothing can be proven other than either way would be ok.

  Tomorrow I want to settle the question of whether 1-25 is the best alloy, and then we'll see how it goes. Will you give me a little slack and say another 10 rds. of each would be enuf??  Smiley

PETE
  
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Brent
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Re: Flyers
Reply #25 - Jul 19th, 2004 at 4:09pm
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Dale, you are right about Pete being a "fairly" good shot.  But a number of us are offering to help him get even better with a little custom crown work done with a rat-tailed file.  Strangely, he has not taken us up on that.   

About the 30 shots per group, I would agree that it a bare minimum.  BUT, while reading Roberts book last night, I noticed he was discussing how old timers (old for that era), wanted 50-100 shot groups to determine differences.   

From what Pete posted, he has a range of 4/16" from his largest to his smallest groups, plus, he has two different variables (lube and alloy).  That is next to nothing and even 30-shot groups will not show much of anything.  Indeed, I would wager that there is no difference in the different alloys and lube configurations even if he had used 50 shots per group.   

You might note that there are not even any trends (the 4 vs all grooves lubed had the two smaller targets for the "all grooves" and one smaller target for the 4 groove treatment.  Alloy was similarly not in an orderly progression of accuracy from hardest to softest.  There are other things to look at, but the bottom line is that there is no chance that there is any effect of either alloy or number of lube grooves filled.  This is not a bad test, but simply a result where there is either truly no difference with regards to these issues or the difference is so small (like really really small), that huge numbers of shots are going to be needed to parse them out. 

As for shooting 30 shots into one target or three or four or whatever, there is one potentially large difference.  If you shoot fewer shots per target you can see each shot and measure each one.  Using these shots as I've discussed earlier on the "Mysterious SD" thread, you would have more power to determine what is actually going on.  I am doubtful that the statistical power would be enough to show a difference in these loads, but it would be better than just measuring one group spread for 30 bullets.  In effect, when you do this, you are gaining information from only two shots out of the entire 30 and ditching the information contained in the other 28 shots.   

Brent

  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #26 - Jul 19th, 2004 at 4:17pm
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Brent;
I have read and do not disagree...

And it is STILL pretty dern good shootin' Grin

Dale53
  
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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #27 - Jul 19th, 2004 at 8:03pm
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Brent,

  You and Dale are to kind. I don't really consider myself a good bench shooter, and I'm not even sure what I'm doing now will hold up at 200 yds. At that range there is a lot more to a good score than a good load! You know we have several guys at the club who can show me how it's done.
  But what's with all this help with customizing my guns anyway? Even our gunsmith wants to help out!  Smiley Gettin' to the point I'll have to carry my gun downrange when I change targets just so you guys don't do me a favor.

  One thing you reminded me of in a private email was that I forgot to mention that except for groups 2 & 5 above the rest showed a definite trend toward putting one or two shots in one group and the other 3 or 4 in another Otherwise, if bunched together, they would have been smaller. Personally I'm thinking that this was either caused by me not reading the conditions right, or just the normal distribution of the group. I tend toward the first.

  The reason for the three alloys was because I was trying to kill two birds with one stone. Probably not the best way to do an experiment. I figure after I re-do the 1-25 & 1-30 tomorrow to convince myself that the 1-25 is the best, for about the 4th or 5th time  Smiley. I was figuring maybe Wednesday I would take 20 rds., plus foulers, & shoot four 5 shot groups. Two with 4 grooves lubed and two with all grooves filled.

PETE
  
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JDSteele
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Re: Flyers
Reply #28 - Jul 20th, 2004 at 11:51am
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This is, indeed, a very interesting & informative thread. The discussion about sample sizes etc is similar to another discussion re set triggers vs accuracy that's happening now on Rick Shay's BPCR forum. Very interesting discussions about testing methods, sample sizes, trends, group sizes etc etc.

I ain't no statistician or even a good mathematician, I quit studying calculus after 5th semester Differential Equations at the State Cow & Chicken School. But I did absorb one or two things about some of it.

First, one group (or one of anything else, for that matter) isn't enough to predict anything. Even three of something isn't really enough data to reliably indicate much other than a (barely) possible trend.

Second, in my mind the trend is the important thing. If a trend can be identified and then quantified, future results can be reliably forecast. Sure, occasional aberrations will appear but then they can be ID'd as aberrations outside of the established trend line, and their relative importance can be better evaluated.

If we have only one or two samples of something, how can we know that these aren't anything more than chance aberrations instead of reliable repeatable data? Answer, we can't! That's why I don't carry around any 'braggin' groups' in my wallet, they don't mean nuthin without knowin' the (Paul Harvey) Rest Of The Story.

Reminds me of a very enthusiastic silhouette shooter of my acquaintance, who has been on the cusp of making Master for some time now but just can't seem to get over the hump. I believe it's because he chases his spotter, IOW he's using too small a sample from which to predict his trend. He will always correct his sighting to compensate for the previous shot, regardless of how it correlates to anything before that. He is assuming (there's that word again) that his previous shot was a perfect cartridge that was fired in a perfect manner under absolutely identical conditions and so naturally if he missed then his sighting needed adjustment.

Well, sometimes that just ain't so. Sometimes a single sample is indeed an aberration, and a second or third sample is needed to show the true direction of the trend. I believe my friend would do better in the long run if he would fire a second or even a third shot with the same sighting before deciding to change, instead of chasing his last shot all over the place. A lotta Highpower shooters have discovered this over the years, but my friend just can't resist anyway.

Same with accuracy testing. To assume a single sample is conclusive or even very indicative is often the grossest folly. Folks end up chasing their tails without ever establishing any sort of reliable repeatable trendable data, and they never are able to figure out what happened except that they KNOW they coulda woulda shoulda done better.

So I think we need to pay attention to Brent when he tells us how many samples we need.
  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #29 - Jul 20th, 2004 at 12:06pm
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MP,

  You're right! The "Holy Grail" is ten in one hole. Can't say as I've ever done that tho.  ???

  Not sure tho why you'd sized a bullet .0005" under groove size. Surprising that the .320" size didn't shoot.

  Ok. Next report. I've posted the targets on a web page so those interested can follow along.

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  Don't think I've ever seen a day quite as good as it was today. Absolutely a dead calm. The info wrote on the targets should be self explanatory. Two things I wanted to point out here.

  First..... Note the MV for target #2. Considering all, and I mean all, targets shot with that combo have been between 1400 and 1408 fps. why the drop? Nothing wrong with the accuracy, or the SD/ES's. Just kind of curious as to the why.

  Second.... Target #3 looks like the worst, but actually would have been a lot better but the mirage started coming up. This is to show, or try to explain, how a boiling mirage affects the group.  Conditions were such that the target was in shade but the sun was starting to heat the ground up, so in the calm conditions a very slight boil was forming. The bottom two shots (yes there are two in that hole) were the first. The 3rd shot was the one in the middle. Should have caught it then but the mirage was very faint, and even tho the scope is slightly out of focus, to be able to see this, it didn't show up very well. Plus putting two shots in one hole got me kinda excited!  Smiley The 4th shot was one of the two top shots and woke me up. I figured since I'd blown the group anyway, I'd try and get the same mirage boil as I remembered the last shot had..... Put the last shot right in with the 4th.

  This is a good example of why I will shoot the mirage when either it's dead calm, or almost, or when the wind is blowing so erratically across the range there's no way you can shoot the flags.

  Hope you find the target as interesting as I did.

PETE
  
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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #30 - Jul 20th, 2004 at 3:08pm
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JD,

  Found the thread on BPCR about set triggers interesting to. Guess I'm a believer in them for both bench and offhand, even tho the argument against them seems to revolve around their increased lock time due to the lag time it takes for all the parts to move.

  I agree that one or two samples of any load are not really indicative of much of anything. When developing a load I will run the same load over several different sessions in order to build up a confidence level for it until I'm satisfied I have what I want. Every load gets at least two chances to prove to me that it acceptable. I don't keep chasing a load if it can't show me in two groups that it will perform. As they say.... The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.  Smiley Those that are good will be kept in the test procedure over a period of days and used as base lines to test others against. Sometimes these base loads will be replaced by another. No load I take to a match will have less than about 10 different trials at the range, either in tests or practice. That's what I was doing today. Both 1-25 and 1-30 have shown that with 14.2 grs. of 4227 they will both shoot pretty good, so I'll keep shooting them till I can determine a winner.

  Had to laugh at your comment about chasing the previous shot around. We've got a few of them at the local club to. Even when I KNOW, after a coupla rounds, that I need to move my sights I will only move them half the distance. I've been caught out to lunch to often not to.

PETE
  
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PETE
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Re: Flyers
Reply #31 - Jul 20th, 2004 at 7:52pm
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MP,

  Right now my biggest fear is that the load that works real well at 100 yds. won't at 200. If you've looked at the targets I posted on the web site you might notice that some of the bullets tipped slightly. A slight tipping I'm not to worried about at 200, because rotational velocity is lost quite a bit slower than forward velocity. It might be I'll have to up the charge a bit, or in the worst case go to a shorter design.

  I'll find out this Saturday at the match.

PETE
  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #32 - Jul 25th, 2004 at 5:31pm
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I can't shoot this well, few folks that I've seen can.
I'd be delighted. 
But...
If making marginal changes in alloy, charge, size etc. don't make substantial and visible changes in group size, then probably/maybe they are making no difference. 
If we can't make a decision based on the available data, then maybe/probably there's no decision to be made.
In this case, I would suggest changing something major, like the bullet or the powder. I can't think what else is major in the system.
I changed from 14.5/IMR4227 to 12/AA#9 in my 30/30 Martini bench gun, because I read reports in the Journal/News that others were using the powder with good results. 
It made a substantial difference, quick. Averages of five 5 shot 100 yard groups went from around 1" to around 3/4", and the odd flyers were reduced.
I just got a M54 Win. in 30/30, with about a 9/16" dia muzzle and a 37# (est.) trigger pull. With my 30/30 load of 12/AA#9, 2 1/2, 311299 Alox (and a GC for no particular reason, don't use em in the Martini), this gun shot 5 in 1.1", .625" and 1.225". The powder works for me. 
I think I've read that AA#9 and H108 are about the same, and very like WW296/H110. 
Another suggestion is that you measure groups with a plastic clear ruler graduated in 1/10". This was suggested to me by John Alexander, and I find that it is easy to measure groups in .025" increments- the difference between say .900", .925", .950" and 1.000" is easy to see-and I'm old and trifocular.
Perhaps a more precise measurement wouls show differences in group size more clearly.
For me, if I can average 3/4" over the long haul, that's all I'll ever want or need from a SS gun. Bench matches can be won with the smaller groups making up the average.
Maybe AA#9 would work for you.
joe b.
  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #33 - Jul 25th, 2004 at 9:18pm
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joe b.,

  Well, if you'll go to the following page on my web site you'll see a few guys that can do better than what I can do. Will be posting updates for this past weekends shoot later tonite, but no later than tomorrow afternoon.

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  I agree entirely that something else could/should be tried in an effort to improve what the gun does now. It's in the works. But first I have to get a fixed ammo load worked up for the .28/30 for possible Woodchuck hunting, and then a .22 experiment using grease grooveless 60 gr. spitzer bullets. Something Barry Darr and I cooked up earlier this Summer and which I'm just getting around to now. I have no idea if anything will come of it but it piques my interest so......  Smiley

  I was just hoping there might be some way of determining if the so-called flyers were that or a normal distribution of shots.
Thanks for your input. Maybe when Brent gets his program set up on his web site I can see what kind of confidence level it will predict.

PETE
  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #34 - Jul 26th, 2004 at 6:29am
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Pete;
I'll be interested in your grease-grooveless 22 bullets. I've got no-grease-groove molds in 30, 32 and 45, the 30 and 45 cut by Werner Wolf. They shoot fine with no leading, the 45 is the one I use the most, it's quite accurate out to 600 yards.
I wrote these up for the ASSRA News years ago, chrono measurements at zero and 200 yards showed BC's of the 45 bullet higher than I could believe. The whole point was to see if lack of grease grooves increased BC and reduced wind drift.
Good luck;
joe b.
  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #35 - Jul 26th, 2004 at 3:39pm
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joe b.

 What I'm trying to do with the plain base .22 gg-less bullets is to see if I can get better accuracy. Several years ago I spent the better part of a year trying to get sub 1", 5 shot groups at 100 yds. Couldn't get it done! Of course I'd get those nice 3/4" groups but on averge 1 1/8" to 1 1/4" was it. I tried 1-16", 1-14", 1-12", and 1-10" twists in .224" and .223", and bullets from 35 grs. up to 60 grs., in bolt actions and SS's, along with 1/2 a dozen powders.

 Earlier this Summer Barry Darr came up with the idea that if spitzer bullets worked very well in .32 cal guns, why not in a .22? Why wouldn't a gg-less bullet also not work?

 I've got a slug mould and swage all lined up, plus a 1-12" .22 Hornet chambered barrel on a Low Wall all ready to go. Just need to get to it!

 I've got some LEE liquid Alox to use to coat the bullets. What did you coat your bullets with? What would you consider the maximum velocity you can drive a gg-less bullet at? This end of the project is completely new to me so am open to any ideas.

 I figure to first try fixed ammo to see what happens and if things look good I'll have a breech seater made for it and go from there. If nothing else, it ought to make a killer squirrel gun!  Smiley

PETE
  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #36 - Jul 26th, 2004 at 5:49pm
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I'm just about to give up on a Savage 12 BVSS in 223 and Eagan 65gr and NEI 80 GR bullets. I can shoot averages about 1 1/4"-slightly better with the Eagan, slightly worse with the NEI. I've fored over 3000 lead bullets, can't make it go. I've shot 2 sets of 15 Sierra 52 gr hpbtm averaging .6+ or so. 
I've used Darr and Liquid Alox on the NGG bullets. 
With the 45 (446 gr bullet)I've max. 
records of 1162fps (17 Unique), 1279fps (23.5/SR4759)-I settled on the Unique load. No leading, except with Black Powder-which leaded FIERCE. Only 3/8" of COW over the Black stopped the leading. 
In 30/30 14.5/IMR4227 or up to 12.5/AA#9 gave no leading The bullet weighs 208 gr or so.
In 300 Win Mag, 24/IMR4227 or 17/Unique didn't lead. I've got no velocity records on the .30 that I can find.
The .32 is not pretty, it looks like a tin can with a bump on the top. With (max.)14.5/IMR4227 in a 32/35 Maynard, it didn't/doesn't lead.  At 12.5/IMR4227, velocity was 1395fps avg.
I cast almost all bullets from WW.
I have no idea what the max velocity without leading is. BTW, John Alexander shot the smallest 100 yard 5 shot group at the CBA Nationals in 2003 with a .223, he can average in the .6's with his Savage/s.
Good luck;
joe b.
  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #37 - Jul 26th, 2004 at 7:50pm
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joe b.,

  Your mention of using WW's for your bullets brings up that kettle of fish. Might have to go harder than the 1-20 I'm gonna start with. One of the problems of course will be what the swaging dies will take. I can go as hard a Monotype if it comes down to it.

  You'd think that you could get a .22, of whatever variety, to shoot with Lead, and all the guns I tried would easily go under an inch with jacketed bullets. But glad to hear that John A. is/was getting good groups with his .223. Might be hope yet!!

  Not sure what powder I'll start with, but Unique was always good...... and the 4227 & AA#9 should work to.

  Hopefully I can get the MV's up at least 1400 fps without Leading. Barry seems to think we'll need more.

  I figure it'll take the rest of the Summer to get something decent out of those spitzers.

PETE
  
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ThRe: Flyers
Reply #38 - Jul 26th, 2004 at 11:06pm
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Pete,

I've been following this subject for the past few days, I am very encouarged to hear of Mr. Alexanders results with the .223's accuracy. I beleive there is great potential in working with the subcalibers (under 30). I'm currently running very comprehensive ballistic tests with various bullets, powders at 100 and 200 yards, some of these tests have involved velocities in excess of 1700fs with the 32 calibers, no leading has been observed, however, smokeless powder fouling has been seen with some powder and primer combinations. I will have more to write when my summer tests are completed. As far as the subcalibers are concerned, I beleive any leading/powder fouling may be less of a problem than anticipated. I reluctantly refrain from making any concrete statement at this time so as to not lead anyone astray, interesting things are in the offing. Lips Sealed
  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #39 - Jul 27th, 2004 at 5:57am
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The 22 gives up a lot of BC, even at 80 grains, to the 30. If all calibers shot equally well, the 22 would have the advantage of less recoil and the disadvantage of more wind drift. It seems that around 28-32 is the best compromise for recoil/accuracy/BC. This especially since the 32 shooters have gotten away from those 165 grain wind-wanderers in the past 20 years or so. I don't know if the "fast twist is bad for cast bullets" theory is correct or not, but my experience is that it's much easier to get a 30 or 32 going than anything much smaller. I tried, because 30's and 32's rule CBA competition, and I just wanted to try something different.
If we could get a 100 grain 22 to shoot, then the 28-32 crowd might be in trouble.
Good Luck;
joe b.
  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #40 - Jul 27th, 2004 at 10:27am
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joe b,

I beleive the 30-32's popularity are as you state, mild recoil, much background loading experience and shooting. Very good accuracy and BC's are obtainable with the correct bullet designs, better than 50% less wind drift at 200 yds. The exciting thing to the lead bullet experimenter and the subcalibers  is the challenge of working with them to squeeze out the best accuracy. As a barrelmaker and moldmaker (25yrs ago) accuracy with the 28 caliber was equal to larger calibers if the shooter carefully read conditions. Shooter ability has eveything to do with the results where they count, at the target. Roll Eyes
  
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Re: Flyers
Reply #41 - Jul 27th, 2004 at 10:28pm
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joe b.,

 It's quite a misconception that the .32/40 shooters have only gotten away from the 165 gr. bullet in the last 20 yrs. or so. Back in the hey-day of Schuetzen most all target shooters were using the 200 gr. bullet in the .32/40 and the 330 gr. bullet in the .38/55. For hunting the 180 gr. bullet in the .32 was pretty common.

 Both Barry and I realise that the .22 is not gonna be the best wind bucker going. But we feel that using the spitzer design will give us a little more advantage over a gg flat nose design. One of the things to do is get the BC for the spitzer design and a similar wgt. gg flat nose design. GWarden doesn't know it yet but he's gonna volunteer his chronograph as one of the two we'll need for that.  Grin

 If things work out as we'd like then getting a 90-100 gr. spitzer design made up will be the next challenge. Might have to get Barry out of mould making retirement.  Smiley

 Right now all I have to work with is a swage that's really designed for swaging cores for jacketed bullets. Hopefully this will give us an idea of the accuracy, and how fast we can push them using various alloys without Leading.

Barry,

 Yeah! John Alexanders success with the .223 is encouraging. Our problem will be that we might not be able to achieve his MV's without a gas check. But another encouraging sign was the other day I was able to push an Ideal 285221 bullet cast 1-32 at 1843 fps, with one of the lube grooves empty. Accuracy wasn't all that great..... or bad, but at least shows we can push soft plain base bullets up into the area you figure we'll need.

PETE
  
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