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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP? (Read 14919 times)
joeb33050
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #15 - Sep 5th, 2018 at 4:24pm
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mes wrote on Sep 5th, 2018 at 2:11pm:
Looks like Brent Danielson has been teaching statistics again.  Smiley


I shot 30 2-shot groups a la Brent Danielson, Monday; came home. measured the groups and attacked the statistics. Found then that the number of shots per group mattered very little if at all.
  
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svartkruttgris#369
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #16 - Sep 5th, 2018 at 6:05pm
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For us hunters there is really only one group size -- the 1st shot from a cold barrel.

Multi-shot "groups" from some of my preferred hunting rifles would do all sorts of things that would make them useless for target shooters, like "walking", sometimes a "lot". That is, IF you did not wait for barrel to totally cool down, etc.
  
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JLouis
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #17 - Sep 5th, 2018 at 7:42pm
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Two shot Groups? you have to be kidding right Joe!
  

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svartkruttgris#369
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #18 - Sep 5th, 2018 at 9:47pm
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JLouis wrote on Sep 5th, 2018 at 7:42pm:
Two shot Groups? you have to be kidding right Joe!


Input to a rather simple statistical analysis. Nothing new, or even very novel.
  
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joeb33050
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #19 - Sep 6th, 2018 at 6:43am
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JLouis wrote on Sep 5th, 2018 at 7:42pm:
Two shot Groups? you have to be kidding right Joe!


Brent D. ia a knowledgable statistics guy, BPCR guy, professor, who has been  advocating 2-shot groups for at least 10 years. No kidding.
  
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joeb33050
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #20 - Sep 6th, 2018 at 6:44am
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svartkruttgris#369 wrote on Sep 5th, 2018 at 9:47pm:
JLouis wrote on Sep 5th, 2018 at 7:42pm:
Two shot Groups? you have to be kidding right Joe!


Input to a rather simple statistical analysis. Nothing new, or even very novel.


Please explain. What statistical analysis?
  
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joeb33050
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #21 - Sep 6th, 2018 at 8:17am
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craigd wrote on Sep 4th, 2018 at 9:16pm:
joeb33050 wrote on Sep 4th, 2018 at 4:31pm:
craigd wrote on Sep 4th, 2018 at 3:32pm:
joeb, I think you are quoting a test report. Sorry if I'm missing something, but do you have a link to the whole report?


Do you want the EXCEL workbooks?

For me, the interesting part would be the shooter's comments about what it's like to collect the data from multiple 120 shot strings from say a 45-70. I'd think the only way to convert down range targets into pure stats would be with test barrels on machine rest setups in a tunnel, with all sorts of controls and reconfirming. I'm probably not thinking this through right.



Why would anyone shoot multiple 120 shot strings?
  
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svartkruttgris#369
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #22 - Sep 6th, 2018 at 10:46am
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joeb33050 wrote on Sep 6th, 2018 at 6:44am:
svartkruttgris#369 wrote on Sep 5th, 2018 at 9:47pm:
JLouis wrote on Sep 5th, 2018 at 7:42pm:
Two shot Groups? you have to be kidding right Joe!


Input to a rather simple statistical analysis. Nothing new, or even very novel.


Please explain. What statistical analysis?


Old, old, technique. Fire enough "2-shot" groups, each with a common aimpoint (say on multiple aimpoints on one or more identical paper targets) and you can create several groups (2-shot, 4-shot, 6-shot, etc., etc.) by overlying multiple 2-shot groups. Analysis can proceed either graphically or numerically, adding stats analysis if you like.

Or, shooter could just walk down to target and label each shot in sequence. If numerical data, then various stat analyses can be used, if that floats your boat -- never did float mine. What I wanted to know, those individual "2-shot" targets, used together, gave all info I needed.

Has several possible real-life applications. How groups drift or open up as barrel warms up? Effects of different lighting conditions, especially on metallic sights? Temporal details of scatter during long shot strings? Means of verifying details of how much improvement or degradation has resulted from attempts to reduce POI shifts? Long term stability of group sizes? May also aid in understanding cause(s) of long term variations, without having to shoot up lots of expensive ammo, require hours of expensive range time, etc., etc.

On one much used hunting rifle (very small diameter rifle barrel on O/U combi gun) first two quick shots gave 2,0 inch group at 100M. Subsequent shots drifted reliably in direction and opened to 4-6 in group, so long as cold shotgun barrel not fired. Very different and more accurate information than from more than 2-shot groups. Also essential information for use on smaller critters where more precise accuracy was essential.
  
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #23 - Sep 6th, 2018 at 11:07am
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IIRC certainty of a mean increases as 1/n^.5 or 1/(n-1)^.5
diminishing returns at a reasonable rate. After a short time you are just burning powder.
This of course assumes that nothing else changes, barrel warp, etc. 

I once owned a Arisaka 6.5 carbine that was useless after the first shot. POI just moved too fast. Sold it and bought a '17 Enfield. Too bad the Arisaka wasn't a cut down rifle. Might have been a lot better. Wish I had one now ( just to fool around with ) but that assumes the heavier barrel. 6.5 roberts was a nice cartridge. Good action miserable safety. Wink
  
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waterman
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #24 - Sep 6th, 2018 at 11:44am
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mes wrote on Sep 5th, 2018 at 2:11pm:
Looks like Brent Danielson has been teaching statistics again.  Smiley


In 2005, when I started my obsession with .22 Shorts, I began shooting at 50 yards and used Mean Radius and 10-shot groups as my method. I learned a lot, but it is very time consuming.  I'm an hydrologist by profession and use Excel every day, but it is still a lot of work.  The Army has used Mean Radius to evaluate ammunition since the days of the Trapdoor, but they have lots of help and helping is pretty good duty.

A series of e-mails with Brent Danielson led me to the 2-shots per target method, same target as we shoot in Winter League, as the most efficient way to evaluate .22 rimfires.  I've used it from the bench at 25, 50 and 100 yards.
You get 3 bits of data for 2 shots; score 1, score 2, and distance between shots.   

What Brent said is that .22 rimfires are so variable that you will use up your time, frustrate yourself, wear out your rifle and by the time you identify the brand & lot that works best in your rifle, the other guys will have bought up the entire lot.
  
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JLouis
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #25 - Sep 6th, 2018 at 12:09pm
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Thank you for the clarification JoeB but for my use it would serve me no useful purpose at all and falls well short of providing all of the information I would need for my own competitive use. Also a bit similar to those who only shoot three shot groups for personal bragging rights knowing full well that if they were to shoot five the results would be painting a much more honest picture. 

JLouis
  

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Rebel
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #26 - Sep 6th, 2018 at 12:53pm
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Matter of opinion.
More than one way to skin a cat.

Aaron
  

WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. Let's Go Sonny!
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oneatatime
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #27 - Sep 6th, 2018 at 12:58pm
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Most of my competitive shooting (with the exception of BPCR) is Cowboy Silhouette so what happens with 10 shots fired over 4 minutes (with about a 20 second break at 2) is my concern. The uptake is that I test with 10 shot groups fired in about that time at 100 or 200 meters depending on the cartridge. I ignore the wind in testing because I want to see what effect it has on that particular bullet at that velocity. In a match, offhand with iron sights, you can always click in a minute or two as conditions warrant.
  
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svartkruttgris#369
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #28 - Sep 6th, 2018 at 1:03pm
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Rebel wrote on Sep 6th, 2018 at 12:53pm:
Matter of opinion.
More than one way to skin a cat.

Aaron


Yes, and a lot of cats that sometimes need skinning.
  
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joeb33050
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Re: HOW MANY SHOTS PER GROUP?
Reply #29 - Sep 6th, 2018 at 1:52pm
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JLouis wrote on Sep 6th, 2018 at 12:09pm:
Thank you for the clarification JoeB but for my use it would serve me no useful purpose at all and falls well short of providing all of the information I would need for my own competitive use. Also a bit similar to those who only shoot three shot groups for personal bragging rights knowing full well that if they were to shoot five the results would be painting a much more honest picture. 

JLouis


J, The point is that it doesn't matter how many shots per group are fired; what matters is the total number of shots fired during a/the test. 2 or 3 or 5 or 10-machs nicht.

  
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