Bill, I don't know what's going on with prices but collectors have to be pulling their hair out on what some of these pieces are bringing. People are really changing flavors.
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Very low prices, yet a minty '86 Winchester pulled over $25 grand

There was also the almost-$1500 Pope, lot 2577.

All joking aside, all 42 single shots did sell.  And if only 4 sold above their assigned maximums, almost all the rest sold either near or just above their minimums; moreover, only 14 received fewer than 6 bids, the rest averaging just shy of 10.

So, yes, times may well be changing with regard to single shot values.  Nonetheless, I'm going to see what happens over the next 12-15 months with single shots offered by Amoskeag, Poulin, RIA, and even Cowan before I commit hara-kiri with my Pope all-steel cleaning rod.

Bill Lawrence

All the great old single shots are down in value overall. It seems the "Quigley" wave may finally have subsided and prices have readjusted to below normal. I personally think in time they'll come back, but not sure they come back to the crazy levels they hit a decade ago.
It really is a buyer's market right now. But those who don't have to sell are simply sitting on their collections and waiting. So that might create a situation where there's not enough supply until prices get back up a little. I think some of these recent guns that are selling are through estates, so the owners are gone and families are selling at a bad time.

The point about internet bidders may be valid, but I would have to examine it closely.  I'm not convinced.

I've bought a lot of guns on GunBroker over the years, and I can't count the number of times where bidding wars have broken out.  Often the final bid is a lot higher than expected.  These are all internet bids.

I've bought a lot of guns from various auction houses.  Only once, a decade or more ago, did I buy in person - at Amoskeag.  I've bought many guns from Julia's by phone bids, but after inspecting the listings online.  The same is true with other houses.  More recently I have bought guns online through Proxibid.  I bought three guns in this week's Morphy auction using their own online bidding interface.

My point is this:  Online bidding increases buyer competition.  It seems preposterous to say it diminishes bidding.  More buyers come to the table and submit more bids.  In this week's auction, on the Morphy live online auction site, I saw many occasions of bidding competition between floor bids and online bids.

So I guess I have to politely and respectfully disagree. JMHO, YMMV, etc.

This is not to say I disagree that prices have declined over the past decade.  A lot of people "in the know" have made that observation.  A couple years ago I had a conversation with Wes Dillon, of Julia's, on this topic.  In fact, he was the one who brought it up.  He said prices for high-dollar collectible firearms peaked in 2009 and have declined perhaps 20%.  At that time, there was nobody who had a finger on the pulse of the market better than Wes Dillon and the staff at Julia's.  I would be surprised to hear Wes attribute this decline to internet bidding.

Perhaps we are dinosaurs, with our love for antique firearms.  The future may be in plastic - but not my future.  I have a substantial collection it has taken me a lifetime to accumulate.  If it is worthless when I croak, that means I got all the value out of it.  You can't take it with you!

Curl

There's still and always will be prime interest in Colt revolvers and Winchester lever guns for the simple reason that following a kind of herd instinct, many collectors follow what "everybody knows" (thanks in no small measure to almost unending promotion): even if they really aren't The Guns That Won the West, they are for sure The Guns That will Always Line Your Pockets.  Need proof?  The four individual guns that have to-date finally broken the $1,000,000.00 ceiling are 1 Winchester and 3 Colts.

Also, comparing GunBroker, Guns International, etc. which are internet-only to auction houses that turn to live, real-time bidders once Proxibid, et al. have closed their doors is more like comparing nuts and oranges.

Last, more people "coming to the table" can just as easily mean more lookers as more bidders, a possibility that's given some weight by the observation that approximately 20 % of the most recent Morphy-Julia sales collected five bids or fewer.

Bill Lawrence

Like I said above, "It's time to buy."  Don't buy at the top of the market.  Buy when prices take a slump.

Curl

This isnt one hurricane or a slump. The hurricane has passed. I dont think we have hit the floor of this yet. Rebel the $1500 pope really went at the last Morphy auction- ok 1599 but close enough. Everyone I see behind the tables selling antique guns and single shots is 70,80,90 and I dont see anyone younger standing in front buying them. There is dwindling interest in a dwindling market with a rapidly dwindling demographic. We sell our guns back and forth to each other but no one in the next generation wants them so we have fewer and fewer people to sell them to each year. I have friends that have wonderful collections that they bought in place of paying into their 401ks counting on them to pay back in retirement.  The guns get brought out for sale with 2007 prices on them and they sit. The friends die and their families sell the guns for pennies on the dollar. Its sad and breaks my heart but I see it happen time and again. Sadly in 20 years easily over half of the serious collectors I know will be gone- many long gone- and the interest just isnt there to replace them or to reasonably absorb their collections.  Guns are a commodity and interest is down globally in this commodity and particularly down with antique guns. I dont see that ever changing. I have a notebook in a gunsafe with my guns listed and phone numbers of friends to call should i die suddenly. There are prices on the guns that would be hard to say no to. Id rather have my friends get my guns for pennies on the dollar than a stranger after the auction house skims off 30%.