Guys   I just returned from a gun show in Louisville and the interest in single shots was almost non-existent.  It looks like the younger generation just has an interest in semi-automatic black firearms.  Don't care about the craftmanship that went into making these wonderful guns.  As a result the selling price of even Pope's have fallen dramatically.  What say ye about the future of these great guns ?

If you talk o any of the fellas who've dealt in high end single shots today, they'll all tell you the prices are down 20-30% over what they were 10 years ago. I don't believe it's got much to do with a lack of interest though. I think it's more about the economy.
In past history, whenever the economy booms, collectible firearms (or any collectibles) always drop off in value. It's a case of those with money to spend having it tied up in the market where it's doing quite well. When the market falters those same people pull their funds out and invest them elsewhere. That usually means collectible guns, cars, antiques, etc., all go way up in value.
In past years I felt I'd never be able to own some of those  single shot rifles built by the great custom makers. The prices were just too exorbitant to fit into my collecting budget. But in the last few years I've found quite a few at prices I'd never dreamed would be so affordable and added them to my collection.
Right now is the time to buy, if you've dreamed of owning a Pope, Schoyen, Niedner, Zischang, or others. I don't think they'll drop in price going forward, and whatever you buy will go up later. But even if it doesn't go up before we pass them on, they're at a price that we can finally afford, so buy them if you've always dreamed of owning one!
Those black rifles are all the rage for so many young people today because they too have suffered from a glut of them on the market. The days of them being over $1,000 are long gone! Name brand black rifles like the AR15 clones are under $400, so that's why all those young guys are going nuts for them.
So if investment is your reason for buying, then buy one of those too! I bought one 2 years ago NIB for under $400, and still haven't fired it. If the market goes crazy again I'll sell my NIB AR15 and put the money towards another single shot rifle!

A friend of mine who had been buying Single Shots for many years before I was even able to participate in owning and shooting SS rifles, advised me many times to "look for High Grade in very good to excellent condition" He said they would always be in demand. When I would purchase a good condition standard rifle he would say. "That Rifle will shoot better than you are capable of shooting and you will have a lot of fun with it" But when you go to sell or trade you will only realize what you paid for it. He was right, I bought and sold many of those with no significant gain. But many of the High Grade I have accumulated have increased in value, some as much as 10 times what I paid for them and I have been shooting them for years. So for the moment I am OK with this poor market. The long range plan for me is to leave them to my Son and Daughter with direction on how and what to sell them for. They are not shooting enthusiast's. But will be able to use the Money for their children's education or start in life. After all we are just the Custodians of them. Our task is to keep them for future enthusiasts to enjoy. Just my thoughts on this issue.
Regards, FITZ.OLD TUCK

Redsetter wrote on Oct 30^th, 2018 at 10:12am:


Envy doesn't look good on you, or anyone else.

rgchristensen wrote on Oct 30^th, 2018 at 1:29pm:


I think this is especially true as we get older Chris! We don't have enough time left to buy them and stash them away until prices return to higher values.

This thread reminds me a bit of the old farmer that won $4 million dollars on the lottery.  The media went to interview him about it and asked: "What will you do with this huge windfall?  Build a fancy new house?  Travel the world?  Buy several exotic cars?"

The farmer replied: "No ... I think that I'll just keep on farming until it's all gone ..."

When I have bought guns I've never worried much about what they are worth today or tomorrow, or what they will be worth down the road if I ever decide to sell or trade them.  I buy guns, especially single shot rifles, because they appeal to me and I thoroughly enjoy owning and shooting them.  After I'm gone it won't matter to me if my heirs make a profit or loss on any of my assets (my guns included) but I will have had the privilege of having owned and enjoyed some wonderful rifles while I was still around and able to do so.  Their value to me is far more than monetary ...

It's interesting this topic has come up, as I've been giving it a lot of thought and research. I have a Pope barreled Ballard that I got some years ago from a private seller locally. Sadly, I missed the wave of enthusiasm for single shot collecting and am now trying to sell in a virtually flat market. And that's a flat market generally. Antique furniture, art, and other collectables are stagnant due to these large factors: Folks who care about these things are dying off, and if they haven't, they're downsizing, increasing the market size through divestiture. Young millennials who don't care or know much about history, seek technology and gaming. They buy things that are marketed as green, like bamboo flooring and such. Hunting and shooting are generally in disfavor. Remember that the liberal educational establishment has had their formative years to instill the let's propaganda into our young. It's interesting that the executives of all the tech companies send their kids to schools that do learning via books, paper and pencil. As opposed to public school that uses all the computers, Ipads, and tech those company's said our kids need to become geniuses.
Of course, even with the stock market being in the midst of a downturn, people who have sold off their art, antiques, etc, will still put money into the bond and stock market, just cause it's safer, easier, and a better return.
Just recently I took my Ballard to have it appraised at a local firearms auction house and had a very good discussion regarding all the points I raised and the two reps basically agreed, saying, in part, that most young people are interested in WW2 era and later. Old revolvers? Ho hum, big yawn. Anything from prior to WW2 is selling for practically half of what it once was. Why the big interest in WW2? Private Ryan, Fury, and Call of Duty. Yup, that last one's a video game. So, yeah, economics, social mores, and a diminishing market are gradually shrinking the value on average firearms. Napolean's jewel encrusted shotgun and firearms like that will always be in demand. The Ballard you thought so special? Not so much chum. So too your M1 Garand etc. 
It's not all doom and gloom though, it's a good time to buy and enjoy those things you want, as an example my Pope/Ballard rifle!

Prices at Rock Island and other major auctions are still up there.

You can complain about what a hassle an auction is, but the buyers are paying decent prices and the vig.

Aaron

I was referring to the auction premium.
Must be a Yankee term.

Aaron

marlinguy wrote on Oct 30^th, 2018 at 6:26pm:


Add "loan shark" to the mix and see what pops up.

and while we're on the subject....in the early 60's I used to dream about finding a good but plain 32-40 Ballard that I could afford. In fact, in the early 60's nobody had a good but plain Ballard for sale, and it seemed that even if someone had one, they wouldn't sell it to me anyway. Today, I have several good but plain Ballards, and so I think of them as my dream guns. I didn't buy them as an investment, I bought'em 'cause I wanted to shoot'em, and now you could say that at last my dreams have come true, or at least some of them anyway.

Collecting in almost every field has been experiencing a significant downturn for the last few years. There are two reasons: the lack of a "middle class" and lack of interest. Without interest in the subject matter, there will be no money spent.
In the 1960's, when I started collecting things, many people who were active in collecting were middle class blue collar workers in the manufacturing sector. they had nice houses, good insurance and pensions, and money for boats, cars and guns. Jobs at GM and John Deere were considered excellent career choices. In the last few years, wages in manufacturing have been barely above minimum wage will few if any benefits. This is starting to turn around, but there is also the fact that there is a general lack of interest in collecting among people under the age of 50. Not saying they are bad people, they just do not have the interest in old stuff. Antique collecting has taken a huge hit, stamp and coin collecting has taken a huge hit, and so has interest in hot rods and guns. Interest might come back if prices get to the point where more people can afford to get in, but as far as guns are concerned, there are a lot of huge collections that are being liquidated because the owners are dying off or downsizing. My advice is, if you like it and can afford it, go for it, but do not spend your money on collectibles as an investment. Just my 2 cents. Joe S

Vig--vigorish.  I've always heard it when dealing with loan sharks.

I don't collect, I accumulate.

I have made lame attempts to "collect" Ruger single shots and Mauser pre-war 22 sporters over the years, but have pretty much given that up too.

The accumulating part is easy it's the de-cumulating that I'm in the middle of that's been hard, especially, as has been noted, in this much softer gun market.

Th daily struggle continues . . . . .

westerner wrote on Oct 31^st, 2018 at 10:41am:


100% true Joe! On all accounts! I'm fortunate to have a wife who supports my hobby of collecting and shooting the guns I collect. 40 years next year, and she still puts up with me and my hobby.

westerner wrote on Oct 31^st, 2018 at 10:41am:

Inspiring words to live by in these troubling times.

But isn't the number of single shots one can have directly inversely proportional to the number of ex-spousal units?

westerner wrote on Oct 31^st, 2018 at 3:44pm:

I prefer the ones that aren't educated enough to find a lawyer 

Frank

Just finished reading the replies and I appreciate everyone's input.  I bought my singe shots not as an investment but, for the enjoyment and to admire the craftmanship that went into making them.  They didn't have the tooling we have today, but did great work. I just wonder if my heirs will appreciate them and if they don't will they realize any monetary benefit  Many thanks for all opinions.   Ballard6

All collecting is cyclical it has ups and downs just like any other commodity. One of the downsides of the popularity of that Coors brought to Schuetzen was the super heating of the collector market. I think what you are going to see for a few years is as some of the big collectors die off and the collections go to auction is that prices is going to shrink. 

40 Rod

Prices falling could actually be what saves the interest in collectible single shot rifles.

The ones that shoot well, are too expensive for entry level people. 
The ones that can be afforded, don't shoot well enough to hold their interest.

The people that shot these as a kid and buy them for nostalgia are fewer and fewer. What seems to drive collectible prices are people old/successful enough to have the money to buy whatever it was they wanted and could not afford as a kid. 

The best we can hope for now, is people trying to recapture time spent with grandpa learning to shoot. Or another movie like Quigley.

I haven't been trying to sell, but I must say I haven't noticed such a dip in prices on the buying side.  The auctions seem to bring strong prices for good collectible firearms. 

If I am overlooking someone's bargains, please direct me toward what I am missing.

Curl

[quote author=5C6C777F704E1E0 link=1540862682/46#46 date=1541105978

A return to old rifles stuffed in barrels at your local gunshops?     [/quote]

Watch the bottoms of those barrels for false muzzles 

Another barrel story. I was in London back in the 70s and I found a small gunshop just north of Harrods. Looked more like a work shop than what we would think of as a gunshop. I enquired (that's what you do over there, you don't ask, you enquire) if he had any singleshots. He said no and about that time I spied one in a barrel behind him. I said what about that one. He said would you be interested in that (like why)? It was an early Westley Richards Deely and Edge with a 400/360 barrel on it. For $100 and $25 shipping it was on its way to the States. Wouldn't mind still having that one.

Guys, the sky is not falling.
Aaron

Rebel wrote on Nov 4^th, 2018 at 1:47pm:

It maybe starting.  I got an ad for a modern sporting rifle sale yesterday.  There were dozens of models and only one, an M14, that even looked like a sporting rifle.  Everything else was an AR.  If that is the current market, single shots will not be recognized as even being a firearm in another 10 years.   

Well, I don't see anyone here giving their rifles away just yet.
This isn't the limited small gunstore market where you can buy a good Highwall for $500 or less.
Take a look at what STS's are selling for on Ebay.
Are CPA's, with no historical significance, sitting in barrels?
Anyone want to sell me a Pope for $1500?
Literature and accessories for next to free?

Aaron
not kidding about the Pope if you're really that worried.

GT wrote on Nov 4^th, 2018 at 4:54pm:

Unless they decide to re-brand them all as an Assault Single Shot Rifle (following in the footsteps of current WA State Initiative 1639).   

Actually, the young un's are saving time and money... if they want to go out and enjoy some shooting, all they have to do is buy a new gun (or currently produced used gun) off the shelf, buy any current accessory sighting equipment off the shelf, and buy their new loaded ammo off the shelf during re-occurring sales and with bulk discounts.
Using the KISS method, they're quickly up and shooting.

And the young un's don't have to bother with the multitude of single shot related issues that are discussed on the forum.   

Bob,
if you read the thread, your kids will use it for  a shovel or door stop.
Sky is still up there, and no one has offered a Pope yet.
Aaron

bpjack wrote on Nov 4^th, 2018 at 3:09pm:


Jack, mine was highly collectible, but not a single shot. It was an 1881 Marlin lever action built by Emil Flues of Bay City, Mi. and done in schuetzen style. 
I eventually contacted his nephew, who wrote Flues' biography for the Double Gun Journal and he told me who my 1881 was built for, and how to locate Flues' serial number on the gun. 
When I sold most of my Marlin repeaters to invest more in Ballard rifles, it was one of the few repeaters I hung onto, and still have. It is also the only repeater Fues ever built. His other guns were either schuetzen single shots, or fine double shotguns.

I belong to a couple of collecting groups with interests in antique arms. At 38yo I am minimum 20 years younger than the youngest member and 30+ years younger than the mean. There is a tiny handful (like 4 or 5) of sub 50yo people out there with the interest and means to collect antique arms. I see it happen all the time where guys who would never let anything out of their collection die. The families typically have no interest and the collection goes to a pawn shop, local gun shop or "friends" spirit it away. On more than a couple occasions the guns got thrown away/destroyed because the heirs were antigun. Some may argue the lack of interest is a cyclical thing but I think that we are at the top of what will be a Progressive  downhill slide. If you cant bare to sell your guns before you die then make arrangements with an auction house to handle your collection before you croak. Moving a collection of any size is a huge amount of work and it is the rare friend that can/will take on the task. All the little stuff- false muzzles, dies, sights, scopes etc are going to be broken up from the guns and go to the dump or be sold for pennies on the dollar.  When Mike Petrov died  im sure it took Joe Dobrowski hundreds of hours and many many months to move the collection for the family. It is the rare collector that has someone like Joe to take care of things. At this point I would never buy 99% of  antique guns as an investment. Maybe very historical pieces or one of a kinds- texas ranger attributed walker colts etc etc. Not what a lot of people want to hear but what I see.

Charming.

Aaron

Rebel I havent seen the $1500 Pope but I have bought two for under 3k in the past two years. I sold a rifle through Rock Island about 2007 and bought back the same gun last year for half what I had sold it for again through Rock Island. I think in the next 10-15 years a lot of old collections are going to be broken up and sold off. Coupled with the declining interest I think you may find that $1500 Pope yet. The guys that built big collections buying in the 1940s and 50s died off in the 80s (ie John Amber et al). The next wave of die offs will sadly happen in the next 10-15 years.  There have already been a couple big collections sell off in the last year or two. For what I primarily collect and am interested in the most active collectors are in their mid 70s. It makes me sad to think that I will most likely have to watch these collecting friends die. Some see the inevitable and have their collections catalogued and ready for the auction block while others wont budge $200 on a $7000 gun and their good for nothing kids will sell a million dollars of guns off for $2k to the local gunshop who will dump everything on gunbroker- or the kids will turn them in to a police buyback program for some walmart giftcards- that really has happened btw.

Remember the 50's...Schuetzen rifles were raped and made into varmint rifles!  I see at out range all the time,black plastic,these young guys uh and ah over a Buddies trick AR Platform.I'll have one of my gorgeous guns out and they dont even look at it.They cant shoot worth S """  either. Shoot what you have and enjoy it.You cant take them with you.......

At the Denver show there were two beautiful Ballard Schuetzens laying right next to each other. I want to say they were #6s but cant recall honestly. One had a very shootable Schoyen barrel. Both were in the mid to low 2K range and there were several other very fine single shot target rifles in the low 2k range. I think antique arms collecting is a wonderful hobby, brings huge satisfaction, links us to history and brings us together as collectors and competitors. As a financial endeavor ? Eh.

Am so glad you got that rifle. I picked it up and put it down 3x. The only reason I didnt buy it is because I had to rally my re$ources to bring home a slotterbek 74 sharps.

I once had a rule that I would not keep a gun that I had not fired in five years; thus, every four years and ten months required a very dedicated weekend at the range. 

A friend collecting Trapdoor Springfields told me his "buy of the century" comes by every three years, just be patient. 

Buy what you want, shoot it and trade it for another shooting interest if your tastes change. 

Gun values fluctuate and you have to stay in the current trend of the market to make money.

I wonder how "common sense gun safety laws" like were overwhelmingly passed in Washington State will effect gun collecting?

JS

JS47 wrote on Nov 8^th, 2018 at 10:16pm:

Do you think the black market demand will begin to soar, thereby increasing prices?

Just wondering. Are you seeing the same price drop in the accessories that you are seeing in SS rifles or are they holding steady?

Flatlander

marlinguy wrote on Nov 9^th, 2018 at 9:42am:

Vall,
How long do you think it will be before the bureaucrats in Salem, OR decide to copycat the new WA State law?
Now that the non-shooting non-hunting bureaucrats in WA State have succeeded in re-classifying the Browning Semi-Auto 22 (and Remington 24), the Win 03 and Win 63, the Ruger 10-22, and all other semi-auto hunting rifles as "semiautomatic assault rifles" , how do you figure that banning semi-auto rifles will make old singleshots more desirable?
Why won't hunters and shooters just go out and buy Henry, Rossi and other new leverguns?
I don't see that Militaria Collectors will suddenly make a switch over to singleshots either. Will the resale value of all those "sniper" scopes start falling?

Rebel wrote on Nov 9^th, 2018 at 5:22pm:

Or they will carry on as usual. Some that have been interviewed have publicly stated that they will ignore provisions of the new law.
And when the law is finally applied to all "singleshot assault  rifles", are you prepared to undergo the mandated firearms safety training and recertification every 5 years to be able to purchase a new-to-you old Stevens Favorite, Crackshot, Rem #4, pick your flavor singleshot?
Singleshots go bang, and scare the hell out of the ignorant and uninformed too.

And when the law is finally applied to all "singleshot assault  rifles", are you prepared to undergo the mandated firearms safety training and recertification every 5 years to be able to purchase a new-to-you old Stevens Favorite, Crackshot, Rem #4, pick your flavor singleshot?
Singleshots go bang, and scare the hell out of the ignorant and uninformed too.

The sky is not falling.
What I'm prepared to undergo has nothing to do with my opinion of the pricing of singleshots in the future.
It' a weird tangent you're on.

Aaron

No doubt that gun laws are making younger folks from discovering the shooting sports. Especially in the urban centers of our country, which is where you find most young people. Gun laws in urban centers are stifling, range memberships, guns and ammo are expensive propositions for any young person whose just starting out. To them, it's more of a hassle than just going bowling or for dinner and drinks. Sure, kids out in the countryside can enjoy shooting sports, but I'm sure their numbers won't come close to the urban populations. My son and I had a long talk regarding this topic and his view was that before he spent money on a gun, (any gun) he would rather have a new guitar. He enjoys the few I've given him, but doesn't feel the urge for more. His local range is $175.00/yr. He would rather spend that on a season snowboard pass. I hate it that this seems to be the way things are going, but in spite of that I'm going to keep fighting for RKBA!! In spite of our dope a$$ new senator. Sheesh...

Vall,

Did any of those countries begin requiring firearms and ammunition storage at the physical locations of registered/licensed Shooting Clubs/Ranges, while prohibiting any/all home storage?

I was told about the Club storage requirement when talking to a couple shooters when I was in Heidelberg. One had managed to collect a few Colt Single Actions, which he visited when time allowed him to do so.
Interesting that the ban affecting your friend in Amsterdam didn't exempt any antiques for that half of a year.

Watched a youngish gal with her AR a couple weekends ago.
No spray and pray about her whatsoever.
She did a lot better than some singleshot shooters do.   

Watched a youngish gal with her AR a couple weekends ago.
No spray and pray about her whatsoever.
She did a lot better than some singleshot shooters do.    

An exception to the rule from what I've seen.
Maybe she has a collecting future.

Aaron

Rebel wrote on Nov 10^th, 2018 at 5:13pm:

Collecting AR's?    

Collecting AR's?

Selling your collection?

Aaron