My opinion (for what it's worth) is both guns are overpriced. I'd still choose the Ballard, as it's less overpriced than the Win., but still way more than it should be. 
If there were any provenance to support the stories the seller has offered, then it would be a fair price, even at the present $1600, but without provenance it's closer to what Redsetter has estimated; around $1,000. I've got a number of #3 Ballards, and the only one I gave over $1000 for is my #3F Fine Gallery, which is pistol grip, checkered, Swiss butt; and it was still under the asking price of this Ballard.
This was a $900 Ballard #3 with lots of case, and 98% blue, plus 90%+ finish on the wood.
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Thanks again for the advice. I passed on both rifles.