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powderhead
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Value/Scarcity
Apr 16th, 2013 at 8:45pm
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I was able to buy a nice example of a Stevens boys rifle at the Tulsa gun show last week, and during my negotiating the price with the man selling the gun he mentioned that it wasn't worth as much as the same model in a common caliber.  What I bought was a model 16 1/2 in .32 shot.
    
I have always felt that the more rare the caliber the more scarce the piece is and that the price should be higher.  In other words, if you had two equally good rifles, one in a common caliber and one in an odd caliber, the odd one should sell at a higher price because of its scarcity.  Of course, I think this does not take into consideration whether you want to shoot the piece or not.  If you are collecting shooters, an odd caliber is not necessarily a desirable thing.

I am not a bit disappointed that the man felt the way he did, but it started me wondering about this matter.  How do you guys feel about this - value based on scarcity?

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« Last Edit: Apr 16th, 2013 at 9:09pm by powderhead »  
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slumlord44
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Re: Value/Scarcity
Reply #1 - Apr 16th, 2013 at 8:58pm
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Sometimes they go hand in hand. Othertimes not. Scarcity does not always mean it is worth a lot of money. For example, I have an example of a Stevens Bisley Model. Very rare gun. Not a realy high dollar gun. Market determines value and sometimes there seems to be no rhyme or reason to it.
  
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powderhead
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Re: Value/Scarcity
Reply #2 - Apr 16th, 2013 at 9:18pm
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Slumlord, I know you're a Stevens collector, so you may be interested in some other Stevens that I saw at Tulsa.  There was a Sure Shot that had been re-done with new blue and nickle which ruins it for me, though.  Price was $1600.  The guy had a $1600 gun that he put $200 into it and made it worth $400. What a shame!  I walked away shaking my head.   

Then there was a small frame "side plate" for $700.  It was a decent gun, and I dawdled and lost out on that one.  I'm still kicking myself, as I felt it was well worth it.

If you've never been to Tulsa, you're missing a great gun show.
  
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boats
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Re: Value/Scarcity
Reply #3 - Apr 16th, 2013 at 9:23pm
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Depends,

Eye appeal is the primary driver for me, both buying and selling. If something 'Pops" looks good, I want it a lot more that more obscure pieces.

Other words it's possible reason that a rifle is rare is nobody wanted it when new, and still will sit unsold today.   

Only caveat is there is no accounting for taste. Everybody's is different too,

Boats
  
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ssdave
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Re: Value/Scarcity
Reply #4 - Apr 17th, 2013 at 12:23am
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Rarity is a 2 edged sword.  There needs to be enough of them to create a demand.  But few enough, that the guys that want them for their collection will compete for them.  Also, needs to be a way to identify the item easily, and a book to document the item so that collectors know they have to have it.  Ballards went up almost double when Dutchers book came out.  Same for the recent Rolling Block book and sporter rifles.  Numbered glassware sells for many times what unnumbered examples from the same maker does.  It gives collectors a way to identify it, and know they need it for their collection.

For something like this, I would absolutely love to have it myself.  Condition is beautiful.  But, the .32 shot would make it only a curio, not usable.  So, the demand is only for collectors that don't shoot it.  I would soon tire of it, and pass it on.  Not so with the ones I can shoot. 

A good .22 rimfire in lesser condition will bring more money, as the demand pool is much larger; most gun owners want the ability to shoot their collection, if they ever get that compulsion.  Many never shoot them, but acquire cartridges so that they can.

As James Grant said, (paraphrasing) "Collectors are an odd lot".

On these boys rifles, a huge part of the demand is from guys that owned one when they were a kid and don't now, or that coveted one and didn't own it.  Now, as they enter their second childhood, they are very willing to pay top dollar to fulfill the deficiencies of their first childhood.  And, they want beautiful pristine examples, not the version that they had left after a few hard years of neglect.

The formula for value and rarity is simple:  Winchester + Scaricity = Big $.  Not necessarily true for anything else.  Unknown maker + Scarcity = Yawn

dave
  
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BP
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Re: Value/Scarcity
Reply #5 - Apr 17th, 2013 at 12:40am
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What the intended use will be often causes me to select a more common model over a scarcer one, and I don't collect something I won't be able to eventually shoot. Wall hangers and safe queens just don't trip my trigger or open my wallet.

  

There are three kinds of men: The ones that learn by reading, the few who learn by observation, and the rest who have to pee on the electric fence and find out for themselves.
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mwhite49
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Re: Value/Scarcity
Reply #6 - Apr 17th, 2013 at 8:29am
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There are a whole lot of Collectors out there that will pay a premium on an obscure caliber. Somre rifles by the records only show maybe 2-6 rifles out of say 100,000 that were chambered in a certain round. That would be a rarity worth more. Most of the stuff I purchase I only purchase because I want to shoot them. Some others buy only to collect and will never shoot what they buy. .32 shot would probably be a premium in the condition shown. my 2 cents worth. 
I purchased a Farrow in 22 and sold it way low as I'm not a Farrow lover. The person who purchased it was and is extremly happy.
  
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slumlord44
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Re: Value/Scarcity
Reply #7 - Apr 17th, 2013 at 9:22pm
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The Side Plate sounded like a good deal. The Sure Shot is a darned shame. Unless the gun is a total wreck, a refinish like that is an irreversible error. I do have a Junior though that I eventually refinished the stock. Hated to do it but the stock was a real mess and the metal and the bore were excellent. I looked at it for a long time before I finally did the stock. The finish on the stock was just so far off the condition of the metal that I just could not see leaving it as it was. 
Speaking of odd calibers the price can go either way. I usually gladly pay a premium for a .22 short gun. On the other end I got a deal on a 418 Walnut Hill because it was in .25 Stevens. It also helped that the guy did not know what model it was. Gun was in excellent shape. It is the nicest 418 I have.
  
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slumlord44
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Re: Value/Scarcity
Reply #8 - Apr 17th, 2013 at 9:26pm
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Powderhead, I forgot to comment that that is a really nice 16 1/2 and yes I would buy one that nice even if it goes against my normal rule that I have to be able to shoot it. I have a supply of .32 Long but no .32 Shot ammo.
  
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