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joeb33050
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Monte Carlo Simulation Needed
Dec 30th, 2005 at 9:38am
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I'm at the point where I need a Monte Carlo Simulation for the powder measure article in the CBA book. Is there someone out there who can do this for us?
Thanks;
joe b.
  
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Brent
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Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Needed
Reply #1 - Dec 30th, 2005 at 3:17pm
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joeb,
Knowing exactly what is meant by Monte Carlo simulation, I have trouble guessing what the heck you are talking about in regards to powder measures.   

Depending what's involved, I might do it, but for what and why I need some more explanation.

Brent
  
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joeb33050
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Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Needed
Reply #2 - Dec 31st, 2005 at 6:09am
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Brent, Happy New Year. I hoped that this would get your attention.
I have tested powders/measures for accuracy = repeatability plus other characteristics, and have more measures on the way for more testing.
I know something about mean and S for samples (all n>/=30).
I have regression equations for MV vs Charge weight for some popular loads/ctgs.
Now I need to know: Normal dist, mean=M and s.d.= S, select 5 samples(then again for 10), calculate max-min, result = distribution of differences or table of differences in units of s.d.
Ex. Charge S = .1 gr, any set of 5 charges can have a difference of +/- 3 S = .6 gr., unlikely, or a smaller number = more likely.
The product of the powder measure is a dist. of charge weights, the shooter sees sets of 5 or 10 wts., distributions of wts.
By applying the dist of differences AND the MV vs Charge wt. data, we can show the dist of velocity differences expected, or make statements like:
"With 12/Unique in the 45/70, 457125, using a Lyman 55 measure, 5-shot strings will vary < 18 fps 90% of the time."
IN CONTEXT! 
All data so far is on the CBA site, Forum, Files, look down at the bottom.
Does this make sense?
joe b.
 


Quote:
joeb,
Knowing exactly what is meant by Monte Carlo simulation, I have trouble guessing what the heck you are talking about in regards to powder measures.  

Depending what's involved, I might do it, but for what and why I need some more explanation.

Brent

  
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Brent
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Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Needed
Reply #3 - Dec 31st, 2005 at 6:56am
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I'm not at all sure what the point is of doing this, but if you want to draw from a given Normal distribution, the following equation will produce a normally distributed value with mean = X and  Standard Deviation = S

AND()-6)*X+S

You can put this into an excel sheet and plug away to your heart's content.  The MIN and MAX functions will give you the extreme spread if this is what you want, they extreme spread is a piss pour indication of anything - we have discussed this many times before.  

Also, to jump from error in volumetric powder measurement to variation in velocity using a regression equation of powder vs. velocity is a bit misleading.  The regress itself is subject to error, so now you have two error processes whose variances are additive.  Thus, your predictions of the extreme spread in velocities will be too small.

Finally, none of this is worth anything unless you know how extreme spread in velocity affects precision at a given distance.  This introduces a third error function with another additive variance component, but it is the only value which might really be of importance - again with caveats about the  inadequacy of extreme spread of any measure.

BTW, where is the CBA site?  I've never even seen it.

Brent


  
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joeb33050
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Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Needed
Reply #4 - Dec 31st, 2005 at 7:20am
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Look under Cast Bullet Association to find the site.
Does this mean that you won't do the Monte Carlo?
I'm just too tired to fight.
joe b.
  
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Brent
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Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Needed
Reply #5 - Dec 31st, 2005 at 7:27am
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Joe,
I'm not fighting, but I'm also not going to spend a whole lot of time writing code to do something that I know to be statistically misguided.

I've spent a lot  - a whole  lot - of time and sweat on writing code and spreadsheets and webpages on statistical methodologies and gotten pretty well reamed all across the net for my troubles.  Mostly by people that make arguments that are the equivalent of "the earth is flat" or "evolution is just a theory".  If you think you're tired, well, I hear ya, and I'm not going to dive into doing something that I know is going to draw a pile of heat and be misguided to boot.  I gave you enough code that you can hack a spreadsheet to do this if you really want.  But I'm not going to work up a formal program for the whole shootin' match.   

Brent
  
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Cat_Whisperer
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Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Needed
Reply #6 - Jan 1st, 2006 at 7:45am
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Quote:

....
I've spent a lot  - a whole  lot - of time and sweat on writing code and spreadsheets and webpages on statistical methodologies ....


Brent - I understand your appreciation for good statistics as I did a BS and an MS at ISU - I know the rigors of statictics that they teach there.


  

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Brent
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Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Needed
Reply #7 - Jan 1st, 2006 at 8:52pm
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Cat - Congratulations on the degrees.  Indeed, you know that they are rather "serious" about stats around here.  However were they to see anything so simplistic as what I have suggested, I'd be laughed off the campus.  I serve on an occasional Stats graduate committee, so I help me keep this under wraps... Wink

Brent
  
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Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Needed
Reply #8 - Jan 1st, 2006 at 10:28pm
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Thanks, Brent.  The degrees are not IN statistics, but as you know it means that I've got almost a minor in Stat.

One of the most important things they drilled in was to KNOW when to use (or NOT use) which tools.  That and how to handle bad data.  Both have come in handily in tooling and manufacturing.

I have the fullest confidence that you & Joe won't do anything to tarnish the reputation of Dr. Snedecor.

Keep up the good work in black-powder.  It's good to see someone at ISU with such interests and skills.


  

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joeb33050
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Re: Monte Carlo Simulation Needed
Reply #9 - Jan 13th, 2006 at 6:12am
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Jeroen Hogema of The Netherlands came through again, I've got it.
Thanks;
joe b.
  
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